2025 Draft Guide: Houston Texans

Coaching History: Last Three Years

Head Coach: Demeco Ryans (HOU ’23-24, SF ’22)
Offensive Coordinator: Nick Caley (LAR ’23-24, NE ’22)
2024 Record: 10-7

Team Summary

The Houston Texans showed an increased commitment to the running game in 2024. After signing Joe Mixon in Free Agency, the Texans handed him the keys to the backfield. Mixon carried the ball at least 20 times in 7 of 8 healthy games before the Week 14 bye. While the plan likely started the same for 2025, there have already been some complications before the season has even begun.

Joe Mixon finds himself on the PUP with a “frustrating foot injury”. Apparently, he injured it while working out this offseason, and the impacts have been lingering for over a month. The Texans have not shared much in the way of details surrounding the injury nor of Mixon’s treatment and progress, but what has been leaked via rumor does not sound promising. Behind Mixon, the Texans don’t have much in the way of reliable depth. Nick Chubb, returning from an injury himself, would lead the backfield. Dameon Pierce remains a depth option as well, although he is also nursing an injury at the moment. Dare Ogunbawale would handle passing down work, and rookie Woody Marks is waiting in the wings should the other options falter.

Luckily, the Texans did take measures to bolster their WR group this offseason. While they lost Stefon Diggs in Free Agency, they brought in Christian Kirk to man the slot, and they drafted a pair of young promising WRs out of Iowa State, Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel. While Houston was middle of the pack in usage of 3 WR set last year, should Mixon miss time, I would expect to see an uptick, as they look to rely more upon C.J. Stroud’s arm and their stable of talented WRs.

2024 Ranks (2023 Rank)

• Points: 19th (13th)
• Yards: 22nd (12th)
• Passing Attempts: 11th (12th)
• Passing Yards: 21st (7th)
• Passing TDs: 25th (12th)
• Rushing Attempts: 22nd (20th)
• Rushing Yards: 15th (22nd)
• Rushing TDs: 15th (23rd)

2024 Positional Market Share

Mixon was the workhorse for Houston in 2024. He handled over 55% of the rushing work, with no other RB receiving even a 10% rushing share. If Mixon is unavailable, expect that distribution to be split between the remaining options as Houston looks for a suitable replacement of Mixon’s production.

Nico Collins is the clear alpha for Houston. The 2024 distribution chart doesn’t represent his true stranglehold on the WR room, as he missed 5 games due to injury. Expect Collins to receive a target share in the mid-20s, with Kirk and Higgins in the mid-teens. Schultz is likely to lose some targets as we’ve seen reports that Cade Stover is pushing for the lead TE receiving role. All-in-all, the only receiving threat that is safe to project is Collins.

Depth Chart:

• QB: C.J. Stroud, Davis Mills
• RB: Joe Mixon*, Nick Chubb, Dare Ogunbawale, Woody Marks
• WR: Nico Collins (X), Christian Kirk (Z/Slot), Jayden Higgins (Z), Xavier Hutchinson(Z), Jaylin Noel (Slot)
• TE: Dalton Schultz, Cade Stover

Player Breakdowns

Stroud returns to lead the Houston offense again in 2025. He’ll likely have to shoulder a bit larger role than in 2024, as the RB room is already dealing with multiple injuries. However, he and his receiving corps should be up to the challenge. Stroud has proven himself capable under pressure (impressively so, in his rookie year), so regardless of the situation, the Texans should be in good hands as long as Stroud is available.

Mixon currently finds himself on the PUP due to a foot injury. If he were available, the expectation would be that he would carry a heavy load for the Texans and be a key cog in the offense similar to his role in 2024. However, concerning reports are surfacing detailing unusual treatments that suggest that the foot issue is worse than initially reported. There are analysts who are taking Mixon completely off their draft board for 2025, and while I don’t have enough information to suggest doing that, I would absolutely pivot to safer options.

Chubb was brought in to be Mixon’s backup. However, he may find himself with a larger role out of the gate. We shouldn’t expect vintage Nick Chubb, though, as he is returning from another significant injury. Reports indicate that he is healthy, although camp reports have been luke-warm about how he has looked throughout the preseason. It would not be surprising to see Chubb struggle for efficiency in his return to the field, and he should not be relied upon as anything more than a volume-based flex play for early in the season.

Marks is the most intriguing option out of the backfield. Many have type-cast Marks as a pass-catching specialist, but 208 lbs, he isn’t too small to earn a significant rushing workload as well. Watch how this depth chart plays out and keep Marks in mind either as a late round dart-throw or as an early season waiver gem, should things shake out in his favor.

Collins is one of the best WRs in the NFL. He does not have a significant challenge for targets and should remain among the league’s elite in 2025. He is a talented, big-bodied WR who is able to win via both separation and physical strength depending on what the situation calls for. Health has been the only things limiting Collins the past few years, so if he can stay healthy, treat him as a solid WR1.

Kirk will play opposite Nico Collins in 2WR sets but will slide into the slot when the Texans run “11” personnel. His best days are likely behind him, but he should still put up flex-worthy stats for the Texans this year. Keep an eye on rookie Jaylin Noel, who would be Kirk’s main threat on the depth chart.

Schultz was the Texans’ primary TE in 2024. However, there are rumblings that while he will maintain the mantle of “TE1”, he will shift primarily into a blocking role. Schultz was never projected to be a TE1 for fantasy football, but he’ll be one of the multitudes of streaming options that will be dependent on TDs for week-to-week relevance.

If Schultz shifts primarily into a blocking role, it will be because of the emergence of Cade Stover. The TE out of Ohio State is looking to make a second-year leap. He already has a connection with C.J. Stroud from their time together in college, so be aware of Stover as a deep league option for streaming TEs, should the training camp reports bear themselves out in the regular season.

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