2025 Draft Guide: Arizona Cardinals

Coaching History: Last Three Years

Head Coach: Jonathan Gannon (ARI ’23-’24, PHI ’22)
Offensive Coordinator: Drew Petzing (ARI ’23-’24, CLE ’22)
2024 Record: 8-9

Team Summary

The Cardinals head into 2025 in the 3rd year of Head Coach Jonathan Gannon’s tenure.  Their Offensive Coordinator position displays the same stability with Drew Petzing having joined as OC when Gannon took over as Head Coach.  Between ’23 and ’24 the Cardinals saw improvement offensively, especially in passing efficiency, jumping from 28th in Net Yards per Attempt up to 14th in 2024.  Expect this trend in efficiency to continue as Kyler will have his top two receiving options back in Trey McBride and Marvin Harrison Jr., which will allow the group to continue to improve their cohesion with more time to work together.

After re-signing veteran workhorse running back, James Conner, to a 2-year, $19M extension, the expectation is that Arizona will remain relatively run-heavy, especially with exciting young prospect Trey Benson continuing to gain experience and learning from Conner.

The Cardinals mostly run 11-Personnel (1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR) and will mix in some TE heavy formations 12- and 13-Personnel, which does give the opportunity for 3 WRs to consistently see the field, but due to their high rush rate, the secondary and tertiary options aren’t often fantasy relevant unless playing in deeper leagues.  The offense tends to be concentrated, with over 60% of the targets split between McBride (28.1%), Harrison Jr. (22.2%), and Conner (10.5%).  The rushing game saw a similar condensed nature, with Conner handling 51.0% of the rushing work.  Deeper leagues will need to pay attention to Michael Wilson, but no other player approached a 10% target share to consider beyond a desperation play during bye weeks.

The key to predicting the Cardinals offense in 2025 will be correctly projecting the target split between Trey McBride and Marvin Harrison Jr.  While Trey McBride led the team in targets in ’24, I expect Marvin Harrison Jr. to take a big step forward in his 2nd campaign.  Harrison Jr.’s usage was frustrating early in the season, but gained some variation as Cardinals started opening up his route tree down the stretch, giving him additional in-breaking routes to exploit his strengths.  I expect that variation to remain heading into 2025, and to also notice increased efficiency now that he has had a season to acclimate to the difference between NCAA- and NFL-level corner backs.

2024 Ranks (2023 Rank)

• Points: 12th (24th)
• Yards: 11th (19th)
• Passing Attempts: 21st (24th)
• Passing Yards: 18th (26th)
• Passing TDs: 20th (24th)
• Rushing Attempts: 11th (13th)
• Rushing Yards: 7th (4th)
• Rushing TDs: 8th (9th)

2024 Positional Market Share

The Cardinals had an extremely condensed rushing distribution, with only James Conner (51%) and QB Kyler Murray (16.8%) receiving more than 15% of the team’s carries. Expect Trey Benson to increase his usage in 2025, however, that very well could come at the expense of the other depth RBs rather than James Conner.

Arizona was one of the few teams to see a TE lead their team for target share. Trey McBride put up a MASSIVE 28.1% share, followed by rookie WR Marvin Harrison Jr. at 22.2%. This concentration should give drafters comfort, as no other receiver eclipsed a 15% target share, and with 10.5% of the targets going to James Conner, it further condenses the Arizona offense between their top skill players.

Depth Chart:

• QB: Kyler Murray, Jacoby Brissett
• RB: James Conner, Trey Benson, Emari Demercado
• WR: Marvin Harrison Jr. (X), Michael Wilson (Z), Greg Dortch (Slot), Zay Jones
• TE: Trey McBride, Elijah Higgins, Tip Rieman
  • Bold – Fantasy relevant
  • Highlighted – Priority target

Player Breakdowns

Kyler may be the Fantasy Football version of a catfish.  He looks like he should be an elite option.  He’s athletic with good speed to add rushing production.  He proved to be a productive passer throughout college (to the point of having the option to play baseball).  He even has top end weapons to throw to in 2nd year WR Marvin Harrison Jr. and TE Trey McBride.  But, when you look closer, he just isn’t what he seems.  As an example, in seasons where he plays at least 12 games, he has never finished worse than QB10.  However, he has averaged less than 19 points per game in each of the last 3 seasons.  He can’t be ignored due to his upside, but he shouldn’t be ranked better than a low end QB1 until he proves he can put it all together.

Conner is one of a dying breed of workhorse RBs.  He was one of only 9 RBs in 2024 who tallied over 50% of his team’s carries and over 10% of his team’s targets.  Usage is not the issue for Conner, but rather, he is stuck in a relatively inefficient offensive environment.  Conner registered a healthy 4.63 YPC and 8.8 YPR in 2024.  However, despite his usage, he only scored 9 total TDs.  The hope for Conner is that the development of the passing weapons, both in terms of skill and chemistry with QB Kyler Murray, will be enough to propel the Arizona offense into one of the higher scoring teams in the league, offering Conner ample chances to score throughout the year.  However, as a 30 year old RB, the question remains whether he can maintain his solid play for another season.  Pencil him in for RB2 numbers, and see if he is one of the options that falls farther than he should.  As they say, if you lower your expectations, you’ll never be disappointed.

The second year RB is hoping to take a big step forward following a disappointing rookie year.  Not only did Benson slot behind Conner for carries, but he also lost the passing work to Emari Demercado.  Reviews this offseason have been positive, with his teammate, Conner, going as far as saying “We’re both RB1, he’s gonna play a lot”.  However, Conner doesn’t make those decisions.  Expect a usage bump from Trey Benson, but it won’t be anywhere near a 50/50 split that you would expect from “Co-RB1s”.  If he earns the third-down role out of the gate, his value will spike, but he seems destined to repeat his role as a change of pace back used to spell James Conner.

Harrison’s rookie year was underwhelming compared to the hype he had coming out of college.  Perhaps his name had as much to do with that as his production profile from his time at Ohio State.  While a great talent, Harrison Jr. isn’t necessarily used optimally in Drew Petzing’s system.  The Cardinals didn’t move Harrison Jr. around much at all, and did not scheme up enough easy touches on quick throws.  While that should change in year 2, coaching isn’t always rational.  Harrison Jr. also has improvements to make when he is targeted, as his contested catch rate was sub-standard.  If you believe that Arizona will have an improved offense this year, Marvin Harrison Jr. will be the biggest reason why, but his rookie year should not be suggesting to draft him as a WR1.  Look for him to fall into the jumble of WR2 options that all have their strengths and weaknesses.

Michael Wilson may be the clear WR2 for the Cardinals.  However, he’s not a great option for fantasy.  He is at best the 3rd option in the passing game behind Trey McBride and Marvin Harrison Jr.  Even when those two don’t get the target, Wilson’s target rate (13.5%) is only a little better than that of slot WR Greg Dortch (9.6%) and RB James Conner (10.5%).  Wilson should be faded at cost, as he lacks both floor and ceiling with his role in this offense.  We can reconsider in the event of an injury to Marvin Harrison Jr. or Trey McBride.

McBride is one of the truly elite TE options this year.  He is one of only two TEs who can confidently be predicted to lead their team in targets (Brock Bowers being the other).  He made the leap in year 3, breaking out to the tune of TE2 with 111 receptions and 1,146 yards.  The only downside, was he only scored two TDs all season (which came in Week 17 and Week 18).  If his TD luck can turn around, expect him to continue to be a dominant force at his position.  If you subscribe to Value Over Replacement Player (VORP) drafting, he should be near the top of your list regardless of positions.  However, you do not have to pay a 1st round price, as his ADP has been hovering in early Round 3.

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