2025 Draft Guide: Miami Dolphins

Coaching History: Last Three Years

Head Coach: Mike McDaniel (MIA ’22-24)
Offensive Coordinator: Frank Smith (N/A ’22-24)
2024 Record: 8-9

Team Summary

Mike McDaniel’s offense took a big step back in 2024. After ranking within the top 6 of every scoring or yardage mark, the efficiency dropped off completely. Part of that was due to QB Tua Tagovailoa missing time, but part of it was just poor offensive scheme and execution. In 2023 the offense was hyper-efficient, needing only to be 20th in passing attempts to rank 1st in passing yards and 15th in rushing attempts to be 6th in rushing yards. A big part of that were the explosive plays provided by Tyreek Hill in the passing game and De’Von Achane in the running game.

The passing game evolved from taking quite a few deep shots to Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle in 2023 to taking shorter, more horizontal passes to De’Von Achane and Jonnu Smith in 2024. This shows up in the aDOT dropping from 8.0 (T-16th) in 2023 to 6.4 (32nd) in 2024. Odds are that the Dolphins realize that this was one of their issues. Jonnu Smith was traded to Pittsburgh and replaced by fresh-out-of-retirement Darren Waller. Waller is not the same kind of YAC threat as Jonnu Smith, which indicates that they are likely to dial back the TE targets and focus more on their WRs again.

2024 Ranks (2023 Rank)

• Points: 22nd (2nd)
• Yards: 18th (1st)
• Passing Attempts: 31st (20th)
• Passing Yards: 8th (1st)
• Passing TDs: 15th (4th)
• Rushing Attempts: 19th (15th)
• Rushing Yards: 21st (6th)
• Rushing TDs: 23rd (1st)

2024 Positional Market Share

De’Von Achane owned a 2.5:1 advantage over Raheem Mostert, the RB2, but only a 3:1 advantage over RB3 Jaylen Wright. Expect Achane to continue to get the majority of the attempts, but Mostert’s carries are likely to be split between the top two backs.

Miami’s targets were highly concentrated around their Top 2 WRs, TE1 and RB1; making up over 70% of their team targets. We will likely see more targets shift to Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, with Jonnu Smith’s being replaced by Darren Waller. De’Von Achane should stay very active in the passing game, as they use the RB to stretch defenses horizontally to open space downfield for the WRs.

Depth Chart:

• QB: Tua Tagovailoa, Zach Wilson, Quinn Ewers
• RB: De’Von Achane, Jaylen Wright, Ollie Gordon III
• WR: Tyreek Hill (X), Jaylen Waddle (Z), Malik Washington, Nick Westbrook-Iknhine
• TE: Darren Waller, Julian Hill, Pharaoh Brown
  • Bold – Fantasy relevant
  • Highlighted – Priority target

Player Breakdowns

Health has been a significant concern for Tua during his career. He has had repeated concussions, with several instances of ‘fencing’ following the hit (hands and arms locking in unnatural positions while unconscious). He has taken it upon himself to learn to protect himself, which seems to result in less scrambling. When he is healthy, Tua is one of the most accurate QBs in the league, and he has the weapons to hit big plays. After returning from injury in Week 8, Tua posted four Top 10 weekly finishes out of his 8 full games. He is being drafted at QB21, and it would seem he is a lock to beat ADP assuming he can stay healthy.

Achane is a player that I’m willing to bet on, both in redraft and in dynasty. His first two years have each resulted in over 17 FPPG, but he has done it in drastically different ways. His rookie year was one of the most explosive campaigns in recent memory, averaging 7.77 YPC. However, in 2024, his YPC dropped to 4.47, but his scoring was buoyed by catching 78 passes. If he can find some middle ground, restoring some efficiency while maintaining his newfound usage, he has overall RB1 upside.

Tyreek Hill has been one of the most reliable big play threats in the NFL for the past few seasons. Until 2024, that is. Tyreek was over 14 YPC in both 2022 and 2023, but in 2024, that figure dropped down to 11.84. Hopefully that was just the result of battling injuries, but you need to monitor where he is being targeted early in the season. If the targets remain quick and shallow, he won’t be able to produce the way he has in the past.

Waddle is another WR who feels like he could be the WR1 for another team but is paired with a top end WR1. Waddle is at his best using his speed running intermediate and deep routes to hit on splash plays. When Miami started forcing targets to Jonnu Smith and De’Von Achane last year, it limited the number of targets for Waddle and impacted his stats. Now that Jonnu has moved on, Waddle should reclaim the 2nd highest target share on the team and hopefully can bounce back so that his production matches his talent. Currently being drafted as WR32, Waddle feels like a good bet, and he has the extra perk of having contingent value if, intermittently disgruntled teammate, Tyreek Hill is traded or gets injured. In that instance, Waddle would instantly absorb the targets to become Miami’s top receiving threat.

The 19.5% target share for the Dolphins TE1 in 2024 notwithstanding; it is hard to imagine Waller returning from retirement and commanding a fantasy relevant role in an offense featuring Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and De’Von Achane. Let your league mates fall for the name they recognize, whatever production Waller provides will be easily replaceable via the waiver wire.

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