2025 Draft Guide: Green Bay Packers

Coaching History: Last Three Years

Head Coach: Matt LaFleur (GB ’22-24)
Offensive Coordinator: Adam Stenavich (GB ’22-24)
2024 Record: 11-6

Team Summary

The Packers had one of the weirdest runouts of the 2024 season. After Jordan Love got hurt early in the season, we witnessed a massive shift away from the passing game compared to previous years. The rush rate soared from 44.75% and 43.15% in 2022 and 2023 all the way to 52.34% in 2024. We saw the same trend in terms of TDs, as the shifted from a 30.77% and 23.81% rushing TD rate in 2022 and 2023 to a 45.1% rushing TD rate in 2024. Expect that shift to be a temporary reaction to the health of their QB, as we may never fully know the extent of his limitations throughout the season.

LaFleur has run an infuriating passing system for fantasy managers. They run a platoon system that caps the snaps for each individual player. For example, Jayden Reed was the Packers’ WR1 in 2024, but he played almost exclusively in 3WR sets (350 routes out of 361). The Packers are middle-of-the pack when it comes to usage of “11” personnel, so Reed is not getting an every-down workload. It is a shame, because they have players that would excel with additional usage (Reed being one of them). Instead, we can expect to see a jumbled usage with no Packers WR truly separating from the group and emerging for fantasy relevance.

2024 Ranks (2023 Rank)

• Points: 8th (12th)
• Yards: 5th (11th)
• Passing Attempts: 30th (15th)
• Passing Yards: 12th (12th)
• Passing TDs: 10th (3rd)
• Rushing Attempts: 5th (22nd)
• Rushing Yards: 5th (15th)
• Rushing TDs: 5th (23rd)

2024 Positional Market Share

Green Bay had planned for MarShawn Lloyd to be the backup to Josh Jacobs, but LLoyd was injured before the season started, and Josh Jacobs was asked to carry the offense at times while Jordan Love battled injury. Whoever wins the backup job should get some increased opportunities this year, as the Packers will be more familiar with all of the RBs.

Yuck. Six different players above a 9% target share, but no one reaching 16.5%. The Packers also drafted Matthew Golden in the 1st Round, so targets may be even more split in 2025.

Depth Chart:

• QB: Jordan Love, Malik Willis
• RB: Josh Jacobs, MarShawn Lloyd, Emanuel Wilson
• WR: Matthew Golden (Z), Jayden Reed (Slot), Romeo Doubs (X), Dontayvion Wicks, Christian Watson, Savion Williams
• TE: Tucker Kraft, Luke Musgrave
  • Bold – Fantasy relevant
  • Highlighted – Priority target

Player Breakdowns

Despite playing the majority of the season injured, Love never finished outside of QB23 in any game he played at least 90% of the snaps. He did finish QB22 and QB23 once each throughout the season, but through Week 6, prior to his groin injury, Love finished no worse than QB14 and finished as a top 3 QB twice. That is the type of season we should expect out of Love – providing consistently solid production by spreading the ball around to his supporting cast. Love should be drafted as a low-end QB1, but you can wait and get him later, as his ADP is QB16.

Josh Jacobs finished 6th in rushing yards in 2024. However, his advanced metrics don’t paint a pretty picture. He was only RB20 in terms of YPC (4.46; minimum 100 carries). His explosive rush rate was only 3.7% (T31st), and his YACO/Att was only 2.58, tied for 18th with his backup Emanuel Wilson. Jacobs RB6 PPR finish was boosted by volume, as he was able to play all 17 games, and he cashed in at the goal line, scoring 15 times. His 17.4 FPPG is a very solid figure, but he overachieved by nearly 2 FPPG in a season where Green Bay was forced to run the ball more than they wanted. It’s an unpopular opinion, but Jacobs is a serious candidate for negative regression. You should prefer to draft him as a mid-range RB2 rather than at his ADP of RB8.

The first-round rookie should immediately step into the starting Z role in 2WR sets, opposite Romeo Doubs. With blazing speed (4.29 40-yard dash), expect him to be used to take the top off defenses similar to what Christian Watson provided when he could stay on the field. However, Golden is a much more polished receiver and will also garner opportunities off other routes if defenses provide too much cushion in deference to his speed. Treat Golden as a WR3 with upside, on the chance that Green Bay realizes that it needs to get its best WRs on the field more often.

Reed is a great receiver, with sub-optimal deployment. He was WR16 in YPRR (2.37; minimum 100 routes) and WR 15 in YAC/Rec (7.33). How did Green Bay reward their explosive playmaker? By limiting him to 361 routes and playing him only in “11” personnel. The usage makes no sense, but we can’t control the coaching decisions. As such, Reed should be considered a WR3, but understand that if his role should shift into an every-down player, he has substantial upside. He is being drafted as WR47 behind players who do not have nearly the same upside.

Tucker Kraft experienced a mini-breakout in 2024, and 2025 shows all the signs of it continuing. His 1.90 YPRR ranked as TE8 (minimum 100 routes). He logged finished first among TEs in YAC/Rec (9.38) and YACO/Rec (3.76). For reference, George Kittle was at 6.71 and 2.23. Kraft finished as TE10 on the year but was only TE17 in routes run, and he only received 3 endzone targets. Kraft should be a priority target for anyone that waits on TE because they didn’t get one of the elite options.

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