2025 Draft Guide: Minnesota Vikings

Coaching History: Last Three Years

Head Coach: Kevin O’Connell (MIN ’22-24)
Offensive Coordinator: Wes Phillips (N/A ’22-24)
2024 Record: 14-3

Team Summary

The Vikings won’t want to think about 2024. Despite their 14-3 regular season record, they managed to finish 2nd in the NFC North and then went on to lose on the road to the Los Angeles Rams (10-7) during Wildcard Weekend. It was a frustrating way to end what seemed like such a promising season.

There are some unknowns heading into 2025, as the Viking get J.J. McCarthy back from a preseason injury that ended his rookie year before it started. There are questions about how he will perform, but given Kevin O’Connell’s track record with QBs, that is not something you should worry about. If you notice, O’Connell’s system is tailor made to create efficient passing, as even on the 18th most attempts, the Vikings finished 6th in passing yards and 5th in passing TDs. That was with Sam Darnold at the helm. If Darnold can put up those types of numbers, J.J. McCarthy can too.

Minnesota also made a significant move to bolster its running game, bringing in Jordan Mason to work with returning starter Aaron Jones. The plan seems to be to use a more even split of rushing work to keep Jones fresher for the passing down work, where he excels. Mason also gives them a bigger body to use between the tackles – a scenario that isn’t Aaron Jones’ forte.

Expect to see plenty of “11” personnel, getting Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison (after his 3 game suspension), Jalen Nailor, T.J. Hockenson, and Aaron Jones all on the field at the same time. Every one of those players is a potent receiving threat, which is part of why the passing system works so well. There are enough options to stress the defense, and when in doubt – you can always throw it to Justin Jefferson.

2024 Ranks (2023 Rank)

• Points: 9th (22nd)
• Yards: 12th (10th)
• Passing Attempts: 18th (4th)
• Passing Yards: 6th (5th)
• Passing TDs: 5th (4th)
• Rushing Attempts: 14th (28th)
• Rushing Yards: 19th (29th)
• Rushing TDs: 29th (30th)

2024 Positional Market Share

Minnesota relied heavily on Aaron Jones to carry the load in 2024. Ideally, they would like to take some of that workload off his shoulders, so rather than seeing 55% of the carries, expect Jones to be in the 45% range, with approximately 30% going to RB2, Jordan Mason.

The Vikings consolidate their targets significantly between their Top 2 WRs, TE1, and RB1. Kevin O’Connell makes sure to get his best players involved in the game, so each of the top options should have a solid floor from week to week.

Depth Chart:

• QB: J.J. McCarthy, Sam Howell
• RB: Aaron Jones, Jordan Mason, Ty Chandler
• WR: Justin Jefferson (X), Jordan Addison (Z), Jalen Nailor, Lucky Jackson, Tai Felton
• TE: T.J. Hockenson, Josh Oliver

Player Breakdowns

McCarthy is essentially a rookie, after his season ended due to a knee injury in practice during training camp in 2024. While there is some uncertainty due to his lack of volume and experience, McCarthy was one of the most efficient QBs during his senior year at Michigan. He also landed with Kevin O’Connell, who will put McCarthy in position to succeed without necessarily needing high volume. Consider McCarthy a high end QB2 with upside, since we just haven’t seen him play at this level, yet.

Jones has been doing his thing for 8 seasons. When he stays healthy, he is an efficient runner with above average receiving ability. However, he is a bit undersized for a large workload, so it tends to work out better when he is leading a committee rather than trying to handle too many carries per game. That will be the plan for Minnesota, as they look to put Jones in situations where he excels, and pairing him with a younger, bigger back meant to absorb some of the punishment that would accumulate throughout the season. Don’t be concerned about a small drop in volume, as the efficiency gains by staying fresher and healthy should keep Jones as a solid producer despite a reduced role from last year.

Mason burst onto the fantasy football scene unexpectedly in 2024 when Christian McCaffrey ended up missing games due to his Achilles tendinitis. He was an effective runner for the first 4 weeks of the season, before he began battling injury himself. His YPC has always been strong, and he has the frame to be a bruising back between the tackles and in short yardage. It’s not the most fantasy friendly skillset, but it is critical to NFL success, and by keeping the offense moving, he does indirectly help his stats by creating increased scoring chances.

Not much needs to be said about Justin Jefferson. He accumulated a 29.6% target share, which will be hard to beat… until you realize that Jordan Addison will be suspended for the first three games of 2025. The expectation should be that Jefferson starts hot for the first three weeks, carrying the Minnesota offense and creating momentum for the rest of the season. He should go no lower than WR2 in all formats, and that is only if you prefer Ja’Marr Chase.

As previously mentioned, Addison will serve a three-game suspension to begin the season. This should already be baked into his cost, which is WR37. However, the price seems too low, considering that you know you need a replacement for the first three weeks. You can draft to work around that, selecting a WR with good early season matchups to then give way to Addison when he returns to the lineup. Addison has been a WR2 each of his first two seasons, so there is no reason to treat him as anything besides a WR2 this year.

Hockenson is a reliable target. While defenses scramble to take away Justin Jefferson (good luck!), cover Jordan Addison one-on-one, and react to the running game; Hockenson is frequently able to slip past linebackers during play-action and, frankly, just run good routes to get open on shorter and intermediate routes. He has great hands and athletic ability, and he gets his share of endzone targets as well, due to Minnesota’s pass-friendly scheme near the goal line. Treat Hockenson as a back end TE1, as he will consistently put up strong numbers, but he doesn’t have the same upside as some of the other TEs with less target competition on their teams.

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