2025 Draft Guide: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Coaching History: Last Three Years

Head Coach: Todd Bowles (TB ’22-24)
Offensive Coordinator: Josh Grizzard (TB ’24, MIA ’22-23)
2024 Record: 10-7

Team Summary

The most surprising thing about the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2024 season isn’t that they were a Top 5 offense. It is that they were a Top 5 offense despite significant changes throughout the offense over the course of the season. In Week 7, Mike Evans left with an injury and missed the next three weeks. That same week, Chris Godwin was lost for the season with a gruesome injury. Down their two best WRs? No problem. Baker Mayfield continued to chuck it around the field and elevated players like Jalen McMillan and Sterling Shepard until Evans was able to return. The team was also able to rely on Bucky Irving, the 4th Round rookie, who took command of the backfield after the Week 11 bye.

We’ll see if the offense can keep rolling, as they lost Offensive Coordinator Liam Coen, who joined the Jaguars as their new Head Coach. The Buccaneers were Top 10 in usage of “11” personnel. With Mike Evans still in prime form, Chris Godwin expected back at some point this season, and the addition of rookie playmaker Emeka Egbuka; that shouldn’t change despite the coaching turnover.

Injuries may play a big part in determining how the season unfolds. Chris Godwin won’t be ready to go Week 1. Jalen McMillan was recently placed on IR due to a neck injury. All-everything OT Tristan Wirfs was injured in training camp and will miss the beginning of the season. Each injury can be overcome on its own, but the collective impact is adding up.

2024 Ranks (2023 Rank)

• Points: 4th (20th)
• Yards: 3rd (23rd)
• Passing Attempts: 10th (19th)
• Passing Yards: 3rd (17th)
• Passing TDs: 2nd (8th)
• Rushing Attempts: 10th (23rd)
• Rushing Yards: 4th (32nd)
• Rushing TDs: 14th (28th)

2024 Positional Market Share

The rushing distribution correctly shows Bucky Irving leading the backfield, but it doesn’t do him justice. Post-bye, Irving was at a nearly 50% rush share, at the expense of Rachaad White, who slipped down closer to 25%. Indications this offseason are that Irving will continue holding the lead role to begin the season, and the team expects him to be able to handle the extra work.

Injuries severely skew the target distribution for Tampa Bay. Through the first six weeks, Chris Godwin led the team with a 27.5% target share and Mike Evans was at 20.6%. Don’t expect Emeka Egbuka to completely replace Godwin’s usage at the beginning of the season, but don’t be surprised if he is more involved than your typical rookie.

Depth Chart:

• QB: Baker Mayfield, Kyle Trask
• RB: Bucky Irving, Rachaad White, Sean Tucker
• WR: Mike Evans (X), Emeka Egbuka (Z/Slot), Chris Godwin (Slot), Jalen McMillan, Sterling Shepard
• TE: Cade Otton, Payne Durham
  • Bold – Fantasy relevant
  • Highlighted – Priority target

Player Breakdowns

Mayfield is an interesting case. He has put together his 2 best fantasy football seasons over the past two seasons after joining the Buccaneers. However, he has also had quite a bit of TD-luck, registering his two career-best TD seasons during that span (28 in 2023 and 41 in 2024). He also rushed for more than 2x as many yards as in any other season (378 rushing yards in 2024). If we were to adjust both his TD passes and rushing yards down to where he has historically been, rather than finishing as QB4, he would have only finished within a couple points of Jalen Hurts and Sam Darnold at QBs 7-9. That is still a strong output, but he is also losing his offensive coordinator – and it begs the question as to how much of Baker’s success is Baker compared to how much of the success is due to Liam Coen’s system? With a QB7 price tag, it makes more sense to let another manager find out for themselves, as you can find better value at the QB position by waiting.

Bucky Irving set himself apart from the other RBs for the Bucs, taking on more and more work as the season progressed. By the end of 2024 and now heading into 2025, he is their lead RB and there are rumblings that he is viewed as a workhorse. Over the second half of the season, he accumulated a nearly 2:1 touch advantage over incumbent Rachaad White, and that trend is likely to continue in 2025. Irving was also creating many of his yards on his own, displaying his power by averaging 3.02 YACO/Att and his elusiveness registering 0.26 MTF/Att (both team highs). Being drafted as RB10, you aren’t going to get a discount on Bucky this year, but he is a solid pick and worth his Round 2 price tag.

Despite Bucky Irving’s emergence, Rachaad White was still productive. From Week 7 on, he scored as an RB2 6 times (with an additional RB25 finish in Week 9). During this stretch, he only exceeded 12 carries twice, but he remained active in the passing game, averaging 3.5 targets per game. White also carries some contingent upside in the event that Irving misses time. Being drafted at RB44, White could be useful on your bench.

Eleven years in the NFL, and eleven 1,000-yard seasons. Mike Evans is as consistent as they come, and quite a bit of his target competition is entering the year injured. Being drafted as WR17 may seem reasonable at first glance, but keep in mind that Evans has only finished worse than WR17 once (in 2015). If your draft finds you taking RB or an elite QB or TE early, taking Evans in the 4th Round could easily keep you afloat at WR.

Egbuka’s ADP has been steadily rising throughout training camp. Already considered one of the most polished WRs in the class, Egbuka’s stock has only risen with strong practice performances and injury news for his teammates. Now slated to start the year as a starting WR, if you want to roster Egbuka, you’ll probably need to grab him by Round 7 at the latest. While he’s absolutely a buy in dynasty, he is likely to start a bit slow as most rookies do, so don’t rely on him as anything more than a flex for the first month of the season.

It was recently announced that Godwin is likely to miss the first 4 weeks of the season. For most players, continuing to recover from injury at the start of the season, is a bad, bad sign. However, the upside that Godwin exhibited in 2024 makes him one of the players fantasy managers should still be considering. He was T5th in FPPG (19.7) through the first seven games of the season before his injury. If you can survive the first half of the season, that is the type of production that can win your league.

Otton is a dependable target for Mayfield. He’s not as talented as the WRs around him, but he has good hands and has a clear rapport with his QB. The 15.5% target share he recorded in 2024 is probably a bit inflated given all of the WR injuries. However, he should still be regarded as a low-end TE1 to be considered as a late round option.

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