2025 Draft Guide: Buffalo Bills

Coaching History: Last Three Years

Head Coach: Sean McDermott (BUF ’22-’24)
Offensive Coordinator: Joe Brady (BUF ’22-24)
2024 Record: 13-4

Team Summary

The Bills are one of the highest scoring offenses in the league, led by one of the biggest stars in the NFL, QB Josh Allen. The offense remains mostly intact, losing mid-year acquisition Amari Cooper, but returning Allen’s top 7 targets on the year. While lacking a true star in the receiving corps, Allen has done a good job spreading the ball around, which is why he is consistently towards the top of the QB rankings without having a top end WR since Stefon Diggs left after the 2023 season.

We’ve seen the Bills lean into the running game since Joe Brady took over as Offensive Coordinator, with RB James Cook averaging just shy of 15 touches per game in 2024. That may not seem like a lot, but in a high octane offense, it afforded him ample scoring opportunities, which he converted to the tune of 18 total TDs. Expect the trend leaning towards the running game to continue, as there were no significant additions to the passing game.

Any improvement or decline in the Bills’ offense is completely up to health and player progression. They key cogs for the offense are all young and should be on an upward trajectory for their careers. Between Josh Allen, James Cook, Khalil Shakir, and Dalton Kincaid there is a solid core to build around and enough variety to keep defenses off balance. The scoring distribution seems to be depressing the ADPs of the Bills’ pass catchers. It is unclear which options will hit, but there is a strong likelihood of multiple Bills’ players smashing their ADP if the production can consolidate to fewer players.

2024 Ranks (2023 Rank)

• Points: 2nd (6th)
• Yards: 10th (4th)
• Passing Attempts: 23rd (16th)
• Passing Yards: 24th (8th)
• Passing TDs: 24th (7th)
• Rushing Attempts: 12th (5th)
• Rushing Yards: 12th (7th)
• Rushing TDs: 10th (5th)

2024 Positional Market Share

Buffalo utilized a 2:1 split of carries for James Cook and Ray Davis. With Josh Allen’s mobility, the QB position accounted for nearly 25% of the team rushes as well. The lack of volume will cap Cook’s value to some extent (we probably saw his ceiling in 2024 given the extreme TD rate), but this is an explosive offense that will generate a lot of scoring opportunities.

Slot WR Khalil Shakir led the way for Buffalo in 2024 with a 20.2% target share, which is fairly low compared to most teams’ WR1. Some of this was due to a midseason acquisition of Amari Cooper, but some of it was just due to the other pieces available. Keon Coleman was a rookie learning the ropes of being an NFL WR. Curtis Samuel was on and off the injury report all season. Mack Hollins… well, he’s Mack Hollins. He’s fine, but not a player to feature in the passing game. The lack of strong WR options results in a 28% target share for the TEs (6th highest in the NFL).

Depth Chart:

• QB: Josh Allen, Mitch Trubisky
• RB: James Cook, Ray Davis, Ty Johnson
• WR: Khalil Shakir, Keon Coleman, Josh Palmer, Mack Hollins, Curtis Samuel
• TE: Dalton Kincaid, Dawson Knox

Player Breakdowns

Allen has finished as QB1 or QB2 in each of the past 5 seasons, and here is no reason to expect that to change. His versatility and rushing ability give him an extremely safe floor, and the offensive environment always gives a chance for explosion games (4 of 16 weeks as THE QB1). He should be the first QB off the board this year, although you may see some variation as players chase the upside of Lamar Jackson and Jayden Daniels.

James Cook has displayed plenty of talent during the first few years of his young career.  He has been a reliable option, who has clearly earned the trust of his Offensive Coordinator, Joe Brady.  However, Cook failed to exceed 15 carries in any game after Week 10 of 2024, and averaged only a tad over 11 carries per game during that stretch.  While capable as a receiver, the Buffalo scheme does not filter too many targets to their RB, as Quarterback Josh Allen typically chooses to scramble rather than check down to his Running Back.  The usage puts a significant cap on Cook’s outlook for the season, even though he is a main option in one of the highest scoring offenses in the NFL.  His RB8 finish in 2024 seems to be near his ceiling – buoyed by his 16 rushing TDs (compared to 4 total in his first two years), and I’d recommend drafting him more as a high end RB2 than an RB1.

Davis is mainly a between the tackles runner.  He should be the primary early down backup for James Cook, and if he shows growth in year 2, may be able to carve out a goal line/short yardage role.  It is also worth noting that James Cook is set to be a free agent after this year, so there may be some incentive for Buffalo to see what they have in Davis by giving him extra opportunities.  However, with Cook and Ty Johnson still on the roster, don’t expect to get too much from the receiving game.  Ray Davis is a week-to-week flex play, with upside should Cook miss time.

Ty Johnson is a veteran who has proven his worth to the Bills as a passing down specialist.  Not only can he catch check downs from Josh Allen, but he is capable of running downfield routes to beat linebackers for chunk yardage plays.  He is still number 3 on the depth chart, so his upside remains capped, but he may be able to give you a few useable weeks – he is just more roster-able in best ball, as it will be hard to tell when those weeks will be.

As a rookie, Coleman showed flashes of his potential, playing to his strength and winning in contested catches.  However, the weaknesses in his profile also surfaced at times for an inconsistent season, in which he played through injury.  Coleman should line up outside as the ‘X’ for the Bills, and will have the opportunity to show improvement in year two.  However, he is not great route runner, which will likely cap his target share as players like Khalil Shakir find themselves open in the space created by Coleman’s downfield routes.  Treat Coleman as a boom or bust WR3, but understand that he could improve into WR2 status with consistent development.

The Bills brought in Josh Palmer to play their Flanker position (Z).  He can be a versatile piece, as the veteran has the flexibility to lineup both inside or out.  He is solid down the field, which should give Josh Allen an extra option to stretch the field, and training camps report that he is working hard to develop a chemistry with Allen.  Similar to Coleman, we’re looking at a boom or bust WR3 or flex option; with less upside for development as we’ve seen more seasons of Palmer to know what he can provide.

Shakir should be Josh Allen’s top target in the passing game.  For the WR1 on a top offense, he is one of the best bargains at receiver in 2025 as he should post WR2 numbers, but is drafted well after that in both dynasty (WR45) and redraft (WR42).  If you find yourself leaning away from WR early, Shakir should be a priority target later in your drafts – don’t be afraid to grab him any time after Round 7.

Kincaid has a make or break year ahead of him.  The heralded 2023 1st Round Pick has shown flashes of his potential in his first two years, but has yet to consistently put everything together.  He has finished second on the team in target share in each of his first two years, however, after a TE11 finish in his rookie year, he slumped to TE30 in year two.  The difference was really in his catch rate, which dropped from 80% in 2023 to under 60% in 2024.  If he can rebound to even the average of the two, he should be able to bounce back for a back end TE1 finish, and this is the outcome I would expect.  His Dynasty value does seem reasonable at TE9, but he is only being drafted as TE15 in Redraft.

More Draft Guides