2025 Draft Guide: Washington Commanders

Coaching History: Last Three Years

Head Coach: Dan Quinn (WAS ’24, DAL ’22-23)
Offensive Coordinator: Kliff Kingsbury (WAS ’24, N/A ’23, ARI ’22)
2024 Record: 12-5

Team Summary

The Commanders were one of the best turnaround stories in the NFL last season. They selected Jayden Daniels to become their franchise QB and got more than they could have hoped for. He not only played well, but he led the team to the NFC Championship Game in his rookie season. The bar has been raised in Washington, and 2024 will be a tough act to follow.

Expect Washington to remain one of the top offenses in the league, as Jayden Daniels’ dual threat ability can help keep drives moving both through the air and with his legs. I would expect to see a shift more towards passing in his 2nd year, as he has now had an entire offseason to acclimate himself to the playbook and the speed of play in the NFL.

Washington had quite a bit of skill position turnover during the offseason that points towards more passing as well. They acquired hybrid WR Deebo Samuel to provide Daniels’ with another trusted target, as well as pitch in with the running game. Reporting out of Washington indicates that 2024 starting RB, Brian Robinson Jr., is on his way out either via trade or even as a cut-candidate. The team drafted Jacory (Bill) Crosky-Merritt in the 7th round, and while that isn’t a 1-for-1 replacement, he brings another element to the running game that has been lacking with his big play ability.

Terry McLaurin has been absent from practice during training camp. Until recently, he had been on the PUP list, but all indications are that this is a contract related dispute, as the star WR seeks an extension with the team. Keep an eye on this situation, as missed time would drop McLaurin down the draft board, but there may be a discount available for savvy managers. This is no way hurts Deebo Samuel, who would assume WR1 duties if McLaurin were unavailable.

2024 Ranks (2023 Rank)

• Points: 5th (25th)
• Yards: 7th (24th)
• Passing Attempts: 25th (1st)
• Passing Yards: 17th (18th)
• Passing TDs: 9th (16th)
• Rushing Attempts: 5th (32nd)
• Rushing Yards: 3rd (27th)
• Rushing TDs: 4th (15th)

2024 Positional Market Share

The Washington rushing attack will have a bit of a new look in 2025. Brian Robinson is likely headed to a different team, which will open up opportunities for Chris Rodriguez and rookie 7th Rounder, Bill Crosky-Merritt. Austin Ekeler remains in the backfield, and should continue to handle the passing down work, and WR addition Deebo Samuel is likely to siphon off some rushing attempts throughout the year as well. It is an ambiguous backfield, that is worth taking some shots on late between Rodriguez, Ekeler, and Crosky-Merritt (not to mention Deebo on the WR side).

With the skill position turnover, the most likely scenario is that Deebo Samuel will consolidate the targets from Olamide Zaccheaus and Dyami Brown (in the range of 20% total). Ekeler should also pick up most of Brian Robinson’s targets, although depending on how the backfield fully shakes out, Crosky-Merritt could make a push for some of the passing down work if he can supplant Rodriguez as the primary rushing option to get on the field more often.

Depth Chart:

• QB: Jayden Daniels, Marcus Mariota
• RB: Chris Rodriguez, Austin Ekeler, Jacory (Bill) Crosky-Merritt, Brian Robinson**
• WR: Terry McLaurin (X), Deebo Samuel (Z/Slot/RB), Noah Brown (Z), Luke McCaffrey, Jaylin Lane
• TE: Zach Ertz, Ben Sinnott, John Bates
  • Bold – Fantasy relevant
  • Highlighted – Priority target
  • ** Expected to be traded or cut

Player Breakdowns

Daniels is one of the top Fantasy Football QBs. He has elite rushing ability to provide both a stable floor and an explosive ceiling. He has enough weapons around him to be dangerous in the passing game (the addition of Deebo Samuel should help). The only concern with Daniels is his price. As QB3 going in the 3rd round, there is a hefty opportunity cost passing up other elite skill players. If you think that Daniels continues going gangbuster on NFL defenses, he is probably worth it, but if you believe there is a sophomore slump coming as teams adjust to Kliff Kingsbury’s scheme, the price is a little rich.

Rodriguez is the de facto starter at the moment. The Commanders are seeking a way to get rid of Brian Robinson to open up the early down/short yardage role. That should provide scoring opportunities for Rodriguez, if he can hold off rookie Bill Crosky-Merritt. Diving deeper into the numbers, Rodriguez was actually the most effective rusher out of the RB room in 2024. His Yards Per Carry, Explosive Run Rate, Stuff Percentage, Missed Tackles Forced Per Attempt, and Yards After Contact Per Attempt all led the team’s RBs. RB88 is a misleading ADP for Rodriguez, who is most certainly shooting up draft boards as this blurb is typed. Expect Rodriguez to settle into the RB36-RB48 range. At that price, he is a risk worth taking, even if the backfield is a messy committee.

Ekeler remains the easiest RB to project in Washington. He’ll be dominating the passing down work, with limited rushing opportunities. That should be good enough for a fantasy relevant role. In fact, he was 5th on the team in receiving yards in 2024. His work primarily came in the screen game, as he actually had a negative aDOT, but it put him in opportunities to excel, averaging over 10 yards per catch.

Crosky-Merritt is another cheap option in this murky backfield. The rookie, selected in the 7th Round of the NFL Draft, is a bit of an unknown quantity to many, after missing all but one game last year due to eligibility issues (that had nothing to do with conduct – it is not a character concern). He has already burst onto the scene taking consistent reps with the 1st team offense and likely giving the front office enough confidence to decide to move on from Brian Robinson. If Crosky-Merritt’s rise continues, and he is able to pass Rodriguez to lead the committee, he should have more upside than his counterpart, but he also starts lower on the depth chart and carries more risk.

Terry McLaurin, fresh off the PUP list, is still looking for a contract extension. If active, he is the clear top option in the passing game, and by far the best true X receiver on the team. I would fully expect McLaurin to play when the regular season starts, but if you draft him, make sure you get some solid depth at WR to cover in the event that he holds out of games and/or gets injured as he gets into game shape. You should be happy to draft McLaurin as a low-end WR2, but his WR18 price tag doesn’t fully bake in the risk associated with his situation.

If McLaurin’s ADP doesn’t fully bake in the risk of missed time, neither does Deebo Samuels’. at WR36, Samuel is valued as a fringe starter, and while, assuming he slots into a secondary role with McLaurin for the full season, that is a fair projection, he would be valued much higher in the event that he would cover primary receiver duties for as long as McLaurin would miss. Reports from training camp are that Deebo looks good. He has had all training camp to build rapport with Jayden Daniels, something that McLaurin hasn’t been doing this offseason. He also should boost his output via some rushing work. With the upside that Deebo offers, he should be drafted as a low-end WR2 rather than a low-end WR3.

Noah Brown’s value is mostly contingent on Terry McLaurin. If McLaurin misses time, there will be targets available for Brown to absorb. However, if Brown is WR3, being slightly above a 10% target share probably won’t be enough to be a weekly contributor for fantasy teams.

Ertz remains the top TE option in Washington for another year. Will this be the year the wheels fall off? We’ll find out, but for as long as he is effective, Washington will keep him as a focal point in their offense. Consider Ertz a strong late-round TE target. His ADP of TE18 is a bit ridiculous, given that he just finished as a TE1 last season in essentially the same role.

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