2025 Draft Guide: Carolina Panthers

Coaching History: Last Three Years

Head Coach: Dave Canales (CAR ’24, TB ’22, SEA ’23)
Offensive Coordinator: Brad Idzik (CAR ’24, TB ’22, SEA ’23)
2024 Record: 5-12

Team Summary

Dave Canales returns for his second season as Head Coach seemingly on track to live up to his reputation as a QB savior. In his previous stops (Seattle and Tampa Bay), he was able to revive the careers of Geno Smith and Baker Mayfield, so Carolina is hoping he can continue that feat to help Bryce Young reach his potential. Canales seems to have immediately improved the offensive efficiency by slowing things down. Carolina ranked toward the bottom of the league in both Rush (27th) and Pass Attempts (19th), but improved significantly in the scoring categories.

The identity of the Panthers is likely to revolve around their Offensive Line. With holes in other areas of the roster, PFF rates Carolina as having the 11th best Offensive Line. This helps explain the increase in efficiency, as strong line play affords Bryce Young time to get through his progressions and find open receivers, and it opens holes for Chuba Hubbard to pound through in the running game. This strength will help to maximize the talents of Tetairoa McMillan, the 8th Overall Pick in the 2025 NFL Draft, affording time for McMillan to complete his routes to beat man coverage or find holes in the zone.

While Year 1 under Canales was slower, I would expect an uptick in pace now that Bryce Young has had a year to digest the new playbook. There is still plenty of room for improvement across the board on offense, so Carolina players are likely to be a value in drafts. Unfortunately, it isn’t hard to be a value with ADPs as low as some are:
Bryce Young – QB25
Chuba Hubbard – RB18
Tetairoa McMillan – WR28
Xavier Legette – WR69
Jalen Coker – WR84 (Sleeperbot)
Ja’Tavion Sanders – TE31
The ADPs show the sentiment that the public does not believe this is an offense worth targeting. However, that also means that you can take some of their productive players VERY late in your drafts in case the Dave Canales’ Offense takes off in year 2!

2024 Ranks (2023 Rank)

• Points: 23rd (31st)
• Yards: 29th (32nd)
• Passing Attempts: 19th (13th)
• Passing Yards: 30th (32nd)
• Passing TDs: 16th (30th)
• Rushing Attempts: 27th (19th)
• Rushing Yards: 18th (20th)
• Rushing TDs: 8th (30th)

2024 Positional Market Share

Chuba Hubbard was Carolina’s 3-down workhorse, accumulating a 61% rush share in the process. Expect this usage to continue despite the acquisition of Rico Dowdle in the offseason.

Carolina rotated through various sets of WRs as the year progressed. Diontae Johnson, who began the year as their WR1 was traded. That left rookie Xavier Legette and journeyman Adam Thielen as the primary targets for Bryce Young. As the season went on, rookie Jalen Coker emerged as a solid slot option, and his usage there should continue as he as impressed throughout the off-season and training camp.

Depth Chart:

• QB: Bryce Young, Andy Dalton
• RB: Chuba Hubbard, Rico Dowdle, Raheem Blackshear
• WR: Tetairoa McMillan, Xavier Legette, Jalen Coker, Adam Thielen, David Moore
• TE: Ja’Tavion Sanders, Tommy Tremble
  • Bold – Fantasy relevant
  • Highlighted – Priority target

Player Breakdowns

After a disappointing rookie year, Young was taken on as a new reclamation project by Dave Canales. The result? From Week 8 on, he was QB15 in FPPG but was within 1 FPPG from QB11. Post bye (Week 12)? QB7 with 22 FPPG. What did the Panthers do in the off season? Draft Tetairoa McMillan with the 8th overall pick. Carolina has lacked a true X receiver, and McMillan fits the bill perfectly. The arrows are pointing up for Bryce Young, so if you cannot get one of the elite options, don’t be afraid to wait and get him as one of the late-round options (ADP QB25). Useable in redraft, but an even better bargain in dynasty (QB20), where a good season would see him shoot up draft boards in 2026 – it’s better to be a year early than a year late.

Chuba Hubbard is the NFL’s Rodney Dangerfield – “I don’t get no respect!”  Since Week 6 of 2022 (after Christian McCaffrey was traded to San Francisco), Hubbard has overcome every challenge.  Despite being given less work than D’Onta Foreman following the CMC trade, he was more efficient.  In 2023, the Panthers brought in Miles Sanders to be their lead rusher; only to have Hubbard take the reins by Week 5.  Still not satisfied, the Panthers drafted Jonathon Brooks in the 2024 NFL Draft; only to have the heralded rookie re-injure his knee shortly after returning to action, leaving Chuba Hubbard to lead the backfield again.  Hubbard was rewarded for his efforts by way of a 4-year $33.2M contract.  Given the investment, it is safe to assume that Hubbard has finally earned the trust of the organization and will lead the backfield for the foreseeable future.  In 2024 that meant a 61% rush share and 10.4% target share (69% rush and 11% target pace had he played in all 17 games).  The usage should be near that again in 2025, but the offensive environment leaves something to be desired.  Hubbard projects out as a mid-range RB2 for the season, but upside will depend on the Panthers’ ability to score touchdowns.

Dowdle put together an effective year in Dallas in 2024, especially considering the quality of the OL and Dak Prescott missing time.  His reward?  A move to Carolina to be a backup to Chuba Hubbard.  Dowdle is a player to monitor throughout the year, and in the event of a Chuba Hubbard injury, he has the skills to be a very solid plug and play replacement behind a sneaky-good Carolina OL.  Consider him toward the bottom of the tier of high-end handcuffs.

Tetairoa McMillan, the 2nd (or 1st depending on how you categorize Travis Hunter) WR selected in the 2025 NFL Draft, immediately becomes the top option in the Panthers’ passing attack.  By all accounts he has been as advertised, showing off the chops to develop into a true X receiver and win on the boundary.  Expect McMillan to lead the team in targets, but with capable support around him, that may be in the 20% target share range.

Legette had an up and down rookie season, posting a reasonable line of 49/84-497-4.  Nothing spectacular, but enough to show he was involved immediately.  He does need to clean up his routes and add consistency to maximize his athletic gifts.  With the selection of McMillan and the return of Adam Thielen and rising slot-maven Jalen Coker, Legette may be hard pressed to earn more opportunities.

Jalen Coker was a revelation down the stretch last year.  His output was inconsistent, but his usage rose throughout the season, which is a good indication that he will have a role moving forward.  A strong training camp and preseason continue to impress Head Coach Dave Canales who has identified Coker as one of the best receivers on the team.  I would again expect Coker’s opportunities to rise throughout the year, and with attention focused on rookie first round pick Tetairoa McMillan, Coker may end up being one of the most productive players on the roster.  Target him ahead of his ADP (which shouldn’t be hard unless you are playing on Sleeper, where he is the 82nd WR off the board — he is going undrafted in many ESPN leagues).  By the end of the season, he should be scoring in the range of a consistent WR3 with upside when he hits big plays.

Thielen, in his age 34 season, is hitting the twilight of his career.  It is safe to say that his best days are behind him, but that doesn’t mean he will be useless this season.  Averaging 13.9 PPG in 2024, I’d expect that to take a step back, but he should still be useable as a bye week fill in or injury replacement.

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