Let me be perfectly clear about something up front, dynasty fantasy football aside. I think Patrick Mahomes is the best Quarterback in NFL history from a talent/ability perspective. And he has plenty of time to pass Brady as the most accomplished as well, though that’s a very lofty goal.
However, Patrick Mahomes is not an elite fantasy football asset anymore. Plain and simple. The sooner you accept that fact, the sooner you can capitalize on his over-inflated value and turn a profit in dynasty. I’m sure some of you are currently grumbling to yourselves, “Mahomes is the best QB in the league, of course he’s an elite dynasty asset. He’s got a guaranteed job for the next 10 years!”
To that, I’d say, you’re right! He absolutely has unquestioned job security. He will never be replaced by a rookie, and if he is, that rookie is probably in third grade art class right now. Mahomes will have the Aaron Rodgers run out in fantasy, meaning he will be considered elite in real life for as long as he laces up his cleats.
But I ask you this: can you tell me, for certain, that Mahomes will be an elite fantasy QB next season (barring injuries, since they are not predictable anyways)? Because I know of 4-5 QBs besides Mahomes that I can basically pencil in for a top 5 QB performance on a fantasy points per game basis next year. I could also pencil in most of them (I loved Jayden Daniels as a prospect but sheesh, hello there) last year to be top 5 QBs before the season. Same for the year before, and the year before that. Can you say the same about Mahomes? I can’t. And if you can, are you being truly honest with yourself?
The Facts
Before we do anything else, let’s look at the facts. In 7 career NFL seasons (not including his 1 game rookie season in 2017), Mahomes has 4 career Top 5 fantasy PPG seasons in 4 point passing TD leagues, including 2 seasons as top 2 overall. In the 3 years he wasn’t Top 5, he finished tied for QB 6 in 2019, QB 9 or 11 (11 if you include Cousins and Kyler in 2023, who both played only 8 games), and QB 11 in 2024.
He has never not been a QB 1 (Top 12) in fantasy football in his NFL career. There is something incredibly valuable about that, make no mistake. However, it is a disingenuous argument to use the entirety of his career as the best way to represent his value in dynasty.
In the last 2 seasons, Mahomes has averaged 18.3 and 18.4 PPG, respectively. He has been a fringe QB 1 in PPG since his QB 2 overall season in 2022. We can’t make the Tyreek Hill argument. He averaged 25.2 PPG in 2022, while Hill had a good season in Miami.
Since that time, Mahomes has not looked like the same QB on the field, both from an eye test and from an analytics perspective. In 2024, Patrick Mahomes was 57th out of 75 qualifying QBs in air yards per attempt, with 3.4. He was dead last among QBs with more than 400 passing attempts. In 2023, Mahomes was 53rd out of 76 qualifying QBs, with 3.5.
Since 2018, Mahomes has averaged 4.8, 4.8, 4.7, 3.8, 4.2, 3.5, and 3.4 air yards per attempt. Since Mahomes signed his new contract, he has effectively stopped throwing deep passes, let alone completing them. In the last 2 seasons, Mahomes has thrown 11 and 6 passes that traveled more than 40 yards in the air, respectively. In the same 2 seasons, Josh Allen threw 13 and 17. Lamar Jackson threw 14 and 20. Joe Burrow threw more in 2023 (7 in 10 games) than Mahomes did in 16 healthy games in 2024.
What’s Happening?
So what exactly is causing this statistical regression? Again, we can’t really blame the departure of Tyreek Hill; Mahomes had a perfectly fine air yards per attempt season (4.2) without Hill in 2022. Well, I have two words for you. Travis Kelce.
These are the finishes of Travis Kelce since 2018 in Yards per Reception:
- 2018: 22nd out of 108 qualifying TE’s with 13.0. Only 2 TEs with 50 receptions or more finished higher.
- 2019: 22nd out of 98 qualifying TE’s with 12.7. Only 1 TE with 50 receptions or more finished higher.
- 2020: 12th out of 97 qualifying TE’s with 13.5. Kelce led all TEs with 50 receptions or more.
- 2021: 13th out of 102 qualifying TE’s with 12.2. Five TEs with 50 receptions or more finished higher.
- 2022: 28th out of 106 qualifying TE’s with 12.2. Only 2 TEs with 50 receptions or more finished higher.
- 2023: 31st out of 99 qualifying TE’s with 10.6. Six TEs with 50 receptions or more finished higher.
- 2024: 59th out of 100 qualifying TE’s with 8.6. EIGHTEEN TEs with 50 receptions or more finished higher.
In the past 2 years, Travis Kelce has started to fade to Father Time in a meaningful way. He doesn’t have the shiftiness or explosiveness that he used to, which is to be expected of a TE who is now 35 years old. Kelce can’t turn a 5 yard slant into a 25 yard gain anymore. He has unfortunately regressed to a dink and dunk TE, and it is having an adverse effect on Mahomes as a passer for fantasy production.
Defenses can now play deeper against the Chiefs, knowing that they don’t need to blanket Kelce in coverage like they once did. Even with adding the fastest combine runner in history, defenses still failed to respect or plan around Mahomes lighting them up on deep throws, a staple of how he consistently won when their offense included a younger Kelce and a deep reception maestro in Tyreek Hill.
Furthermore, the Chiefs’ team defense has been absolutely elite the past 2 seasons. In 2024, the Chiefs were 4th in Points Allowed and 12th in Yards/Play Allowed. In 2023, they were 2nd in Points Allowed and 5th in Yards/Play Allowed. The Chiefs don’t have to score a lot of points anymore, which the fantasy community is well aware of at this point.
So Why Move Him?
Why move Patrick Mahomes? It’s pretty simple. Until proven otherwise without a younger Travis Kelce, Mahomes does not have Top 5 in QB PPG upside anymore in any given year from a projections standpoint. He will absolutely have anywhere from 2-4 more Top 5 QB seasons in his career, unless he inexplicably falls off a cliff from a talent standpoint. So will a half dozen other QBs that are much, much lower in dynasty startup ADP.
I could see Dak Prescott having more Top 5 QB seasons than Mahomes in the next 5 years pretty easily. Same with Jared Goff, Baker Mayfield, Brock Purdy, and Kyler Murray. I could also easily see Mahomes being better than all of them.
Who I can’t see Mahomes out-scoring over the next 5 years is Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Jayden Daniels, Jalen Hurts, and Joe Burrow. They’re a clear tier ahead in most people’s minds. So here’s the kicker. Mahomes is still going almost immediately after these guys in most Superflex Dynasty Startups. He often goes ahead of almost all of the elite Wide Receivers.
Even dynasty fantasy football is still primarily a game of “what have you done for me recently”. And recently, it’s been mediocrity from Mr. Mahomes. I can get a QB with basically the same exact upside as Mahomes for half the cost in dynasty trades, and multiple round discounts in dynasty startup drafts. Personally, I’m doing that 10 out of 10 times.
Take the FantasyPros Trade Value Chart, an amalgamation of numerous experts and writers’ rankings, with each player assigned a point value. They currently have Patrick Mahomes as QB 6 with 99 value points in Superflex leagues. He’s only 3 points behind Jalen Hurts. Meanwhile, they have Jared Goff at QB 19 with 65 points, and Dak Prescott at QB 22 with only 51 points.
Dak Prescott is less than 2 years older than Mahomes. Goff is only 1 year older. Baker Mayfield is the same age as Patrick. Dak Prescott has a Top 5 QB PPG season that’s more recent than Mahomes does. Mahomes has the same amount of Top 5 QB PPG seasons in the last 3 years as Baker, Dak, and Justin Fields (lol). In the same amount of time, Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts have been Top 5 QBs all 3 years. Lamar and Joe Burrow have done it twice, only missing the Top 5 in the seasons they each missed time due to injury.
For context on the point value chart from FantasyPros, Mahomes currently is valued higher than every single receiver, including Chase and Jefferson (90). He’s 25 points higher than Bijan as the highest running back. That’s the value of an early to mid 2nd round rookie pick in the 2025 rookie draft in Superflex leagues.
Time for Some Homework
Yes, Patrick Mahomes is an alien at QB. There’s no denying that, nor should you ignore it. But you also shouldn’t ignore the fact that you could very feasibly turn Patrick Mahomes into literally any position player you want in some Superflex leagues, plus possibly more assets on top of that.
If Mahomes has another bum season in 2025, how far down the QB totem pole do you think he falls? He could drop to very nearly the QB 12 if other younger QBs have a good season. At that point, his value is then cemented there as his ceiling, even if he does have a great season in a random future year. He will never again rise up to the height of where his current value is or used to be, and you will have missed any kind of window to gain some value for your dynasty team.
And if Mahomes explodes this season in 2025, does he even move up a spot? Maybe if Hurts or Daniels sputters, they could drop below him? That’s about it. He’s not moving ahead of Allen, he’s not moving ahead of Lamar, and he probably wouldn’t move ahead of Burrow.
The only assets you should ever be looking to hold at value are assets that are holding steady at their peak. Mahomes has passed that peak already, and like it or not, his value is closer to being on the decline than at having a chance to rise once more in a meaningful, lasting way.
If you are rostering Patrick Mahomes in a Superflex Dynasty league today, go look around your league. Go see if someone has the Ceedee Lamb and Dak Prescott stack, or the Jared Goff and Amon-Ra stack. Utilize some secondary pieces or non-premium rookie picks, paired with the obvious name value of Mahomes, and go get yourself a young, stud Wide receiver and a solid QB 2. The odds are relatively decent that that QB could just flat out out-score Mahomes over the next few seasons if you hit the right QB.
Patrick Mahomes is not going to decline as an NFL Quarterback for a long time still, not at the pace he’s keeping. But as a fantasy asset, he simply does not have the upside he did in his youth, while somehow maintaining that value in dynasty to this point. He will have a handful of great seasons still, almost certainly. But he will also almost certainly not provide consistent Top 5 QB scoring, year in and year out, over the next decade. And as long as the market values him like he will, you should capitalize on that mis-pricing.
