Underdog Fantasy Monday Night Football Top Plays 9/15

In this weekly series, the crew will break down their top plays for the day and tell you why you should target them! This week we get two games on Monday Night Football – Buccaneers at Texans and Chargers at Raiders.

Bucky Irving HIGHER Than 13.5 Longest Rush

I like playing Bucky’s longest rush for a few reasons. He is getting more work than in 2024 and Houston is a prime matchup despite being a good defense. Week 1 saw Irving earn a snap share higher than anything he posted in his rookie year (76%). His takeover of the backfield continued from last year, so he should get plenty of opportunities on the ground. Additionally, despite Houston posting the 11th best rushing yards allowed and 11th best YPC allowed in 2024, they actually gave up the 4th highest rate of explosive rushing plays (6.0%). Look for Bucky to have the opportunity to create at least one explosive rush of 14+ yards.

Nick Chubb LOWER Than 12.5 Rush Attempts

Nick Chubb led the Texans rushing attack in Week 1 and was their most efficient option on the ground. He was given 13 attempts, but that number needs context. The Texans never found themselves trailing by more than a TD and Chubb still only received 13 carries. The Texans overall posted a -2.6% PROE (when they were +4.6% PROE in 2024 with primary RB Joe Mixon). Finally, Tampa Bay is a pass funnel defense. We just saw the Falcons give a combined 22 carries to Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier while having Penix throw 42 passes. Expect the Texans to have a much higher pass rate, and there is a good chance they will be in a worse game script against an explosive Tampa Bay offense.

Jayden Higgins HIGHER Than 24.5 Rush + Rec Yards

We don’t have a large NFL sample with Jayden Higgins, so a bit of this is speculation. However, with how poorly the Texans’ offense played in Week 1, sentiment is quite down on their passing game. Despite playing only 43% of snaps in Week 1, Higgins recorded 2 receptions on 3 targets with a stellar 16 YPR. He was clearly the 2nd best option, as both Xavier Hutchinson and Jaylin Noel struggled to make a contribution with their playing time. As noted with the Nick Chubb selection above, expect the Texans to pass more in Week 2, and expect usage to shift towards the more effective players (Nico Collins & Jayden Higgins). He should only need 2 catches to hit 25 yards, so any increase in usage should easily surpass that number.

Keenan Allen LOWER Than 19.5 Longest Reception

Keenan Allen has had an awesome NFL career. During his prime, he was a stellar route runner and explosive playmaker for the Chargers. However, he isn’t that player anymore. Las Vegas has a poor secondary, as shown by their poor outing against the New England passing game in Week 1, but 19.5 is a big number for a longest reception. From 2022 – 2024, Keenan Allen’s aDOT has been 8.8, 9.7, and 9.8. That’s fine for a run-after-catch monster. However, at Allen’s advanced age, we’ve seen his playmaking drop as his athleticism begins to fail him. His YAC/REC has been at 4.14, 4.00, and 3.54 over the same time period. At this point in his career, Allen is a technical route runner with solid hands, but he is not an explosive playmaker. He is a chain mover, but 19.5 yards is ambitious for a player with his role and style.

**All projections are pulled from FantasyPros Weekly Research Tools.