Dynasty start-ups are in full swing. GMs are scouring online and personal rankings identifying ideal targets for their first several selections. GMs covet players others find undesirable and ignore players the masses trade-up to draft. From there the overrated and underrated debate ensues.
Jeffrey Crisp and I quickly review four players where we differ from the consensus at FantasyPros based on Superfelx PPR.
Ceedee Lamb – WR03/OVR 9
Chris: Overrated. Ranking Ceedee Lamb this year has more to do with situation and circumstances. The fantasy world knows he has a lofty ceiling and oak wood floor. Lamb is seemingly QB proof and this may be spicy, but Ceedee likely will not live up to expectations. Players like Amon-Ra St Brown, Puka Nacua, and Malik Nabers have offensive continuity with established rushing attacks. Meanwhile, Brian Thomas Jr. and Lamb both have head coaching changes. Jerry Jones hired Ken Dorsey as Dallas’ pass-game coordinator. After two disappointing years in Buffalo, Dorsey was worse in 2024 with the Cleveland Browns, ranking 28th in total offense and dead last in scoring. A non-existent run game, offensive coaching changes, and inconsistent QB play has me ranking Lamb down from his WR3 ECR.
Jeff: Overrated. Is it insane to believe Lamb is overrated? Perhaps. If he is overrated it is only by a few spots at best. But at 1.09 why not target a top-tier, pass-catching running back first? If Bijan Robinson and Jamyr Gibbs are both gone, Amon-Ra St. Brown or Puka Nacua are preferences over Lamb. Playing all 17 games last season St. Brown (19.11 fppg) had six contests with 20 or more fantasy points. He did have three games under 10 fantasy points but also had two games just under 40 each. In 2024 Nacua (17.82 fppg) and Lamb (17.53 fppg) each had four games of 20 or more fantasy points. Nacua, however, played four less games. Lamb had six games under 15 points to Nacua’s three (each with two in single digits). Had Nacua found the end zone, this wouldn’t be close. Granted without Dak Prescott the second half of the season, Lamb fell to 16.2 fppg. But is Prescott’s return motivation to select Lamb over the aforementioned players?
Kyle Pitts – TE10/OVR 100
Chris: Overrated. Once a consensus top-tier TE, the mighty has fallen—hard. 16th in targets amongst all TE’s, this sticky stat has decreased four consecutive seasons for Pitts. Over his last six games in 2024, only once was he on the field for more than 50% of offensive snaps (78%). The new coaching regime of Raheem Morris (HC) and Zac Robinson (OC), and fantasy managers alike, may want to pump the brakes on Kyle Pitts this season.
Jeff: Overrated. Overwhelming disappointment? Yes. Bust? Not quite yet. Expectations for Pitts were high last year with Cousins behind center but that didn’t translate into success. Nine games Pitts was targeted less than five times. The good news is each season Pitts’ TD production has increased by one. Will the Penix era precipitate a resurrection of a career on the precipice of bust-dom? While unlikely, anything is possible. Should GMs be willing to take that risk with other viable TEs available two to three rounds later? Probably not.
Terry McLaurin – WR24/OVR 55
Jeff: Underrated. McLaurin is coming off his fifth straight 1,000 yard receiving season. He scored 13 TDs, almost doubling his previous high of seven his rookie campaign. While some statistical measures and a receiver turning 30 may indicate he is appropriately ranked, McLaurin is gold inside the red zone. Per Fantasy Points Data, amongst all wide receivers, he was tied for 13th in end-zone targets (10), 10th in catchable targets (14—a 100% rate), fifth in contested targets (5) and first in contested catches (5—100%). He was first in end-zone TDs (9). Passer Rating when thrown to in the red zone was first for those with more than five targets (139.6). Oh, and he has Jayden Daniels tossing him the ball. McLaurin may only have a couple seasons left on your roster, but if I am in a startup, I am targeting him before DK Metcalf, Jordan Addison, Rashee Rice and DJ Moore.
Chris: Underrated. If you’re looking for a high-end ironman to solidify your team, look past the age here and take Terry McLauren. He crushed the 2024 season and there is no reason for him not to repeat or improve in the second season in Kliff Kingsbury’s offense. The Commanders were a top-five offense in PPG (28.5) and 7th in YPG (369.6). It’s hard not to be excited about Terry’s 40.24% total target air yards for Washington. The veteran wideout has been the definition of consistency though his six years in DC. McLauren has only posted less than 100 targets once (93) in his rookie season. He has missed an astounding three games during his career—the last in 2020. McLauren will be 30 in September, but late in the 3rd or early 4th round here could be the difference between playing in the championship or starting your rookie scouting for the next season.
