Thursday Night Football Best Bets Week 8

This will identify player prop lines that seem to have inefficiencies built in that can be considered. Please note that all plays have the risk of losing and that one should never gamble beyond their means.

Quentin Johnston UNDER 48.5 Receiving Yards (-111)

Quentin Johnston has actually been really good in 2025. He’s averaging 7.7 targets for 4.7 catches, 67.8 yards, and 0.8 touchdowns per game. So why take the under on a line that is so much lower than his averages? It’s all about the matchup with the Minnesota Vikings. The Vikings are what we call a “run funnel”. Opponents have posted a -2.5% Pass Rate Over Expectation (PROE), which is 5th lowest in the NFL. The Vikings also allow only 33.6% of targets to receivers lined up out wide. That is lowest in the NFL. Johnston runs 84.7% of his routes out wide. In a game that should see lower passing volume, and one in which those targets should get filtered to tight end and running back more than wide receiver, I’ll take the under on the player who was returning from injury in Week 7 on a short week.

Oronde Gadsden II OVER 43.5 Receiving Yards (-113)

Oronde Gadsden II had his breakout game in Week 7. The rookie tight end posted a career-high day recording 164 yards on 7 catches (9 targets) with a touchdown to boot. Not only was this his best game of the season, but over the past two games, he has received 8 & 9 targets, so it isn’t a one-off fluke. Compounding the importance of this performance, we should note that the Chargers’ pass catchers were healthy in this game. All three wide receivers were active and Will Dissly was active for the second consecutive game. Gadsden didn’t accrue this production because he stepped into a void. The rookie will be part of the game plan against Minnesota, and as noted above, the Minnesota defense does funnel targets to tight ends and running backs rather than wide receivers.
**As the Gadsden line is moving up, I’d be happy to take it all the way up to 48.5**

Keenan Allen UNDER 50.5 Receiving Yards (-113)

I won’t repeat all the same stats cited for Quentin Johnston again for Keenan Allen, but the point remains. Expect Minnesota to be vulnerable against the run and in the passing game with tight ends and running backs. Keenan Allen, like Johnston, runs the majority of his routes on the outside, and should not get nearly as many targets as normal in this matchup.

T.J. Hockenson UNDER 34.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Unlike the way teams attack the Minnesota Vikings’ defense, against the Los Angeles Chargers, teams tend to target outside wide receivers. This bodes well for Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison, who should put up strong games. However, the Chargers allow only 29.1% of targets to receivers in the slot (24th) and, a pretty average, 11.8% of targets to inline tight ends. Hockenson runs 41.4% of his routes from the slot and 45% of his routes from an inline alignment. He won’t be a focal point for the game plan, and as such, is unlikely to exceed his prop line.