Thursday Night Football Best Bets Week 7

This will identify player prop lines that seem to have inefficiencies built in that can be considered. Please note that all plays have the risk of losing and that one should never gamble beyond their means.

Noah Fant OVER 27.5 Receiving Yards (-109)

With Mike Gesicki placed on IR, Noah Fant steps up as the top tight end target for the Bengals. The Steelers have given up the 8th most targets (46) and the 7th most yards (359) to tight ends in the NFL, but they have only played 5 games! That works out to over nine targets for nearly 72 yards per game to tight ends. With Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins working down the field, the tight ends have been playing a short-area receiving role, which should help boost their volume. While they haven’t had a high yards per catch mark this season, the increase in volume should give Fant plenty of chances to exceed 27.5 yards.

Andrei Iosivas OVER 15.5 Receiving Yards (-116)

Andrei Iosivas is the 5th target option for Cincinnati. So why take his over? We just saw Joe Flacco’s first start with the team, and he clearly wasn’t afraid to spread the ball around to whoever was open. All the defensive attention will go to Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, which should leave Iosivas with weaker coverage in the slot more often than not. The Steelers allow the 11th-highest target rate to slot wide receivers, and with Mike Gesicki on IR, Iosivas should play an even higher percentage of his snaps from the slot.

Jaylen Warren UNDER 20.5 Receiving Yards (-116)

We have to look at Jaylen Warren’s season in two pieces: pre-injury and post-injury. Heading into the Week 5 game in Europe, Warren had earned a 13.6% target share. It still trailed Kenneth Gainwell’s 14.5%, but it was extremely strong for a running back. In his return from injury in Week 6, Warren only received two targets (6.7%) while Gainwell racked up six targets (20%). Perhaps this is a one-week anomaly, but I think it is more likely a sign that Arthur Smith loved what he saw out of Gainwell in Week 5. Look for Gainwell to retain the passing down work, and in a game where Pittsburgh should lead, here won’t be a ton of need to pass, so the overall volume will likely be down as well.

Chase Brown OVER 15.5 Receiving Yards (-117)

Week 6, against Green Bay, was the only game in which Chase Brown hadn’t received at least three targets. Expect him to bounce back as a staple in the short passing game, again, helping fill the void left by Mike Gesicki. Flacco should have to get the ball out quickly again against a strong Pittsburgh front seven, so he will likely lean on Chase Brown as an outlet, giving him ample opportunities to get over 15.5 receiving yards.

Darnell Washington OVER 20.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Darnell Washington has seen a strong uptick in usage over the past two games for the Steelers. After only one target through the first three games combined, he received eight targets over the past two games, and he has been successful with it. Expect that trend to continue, as Pittsburgh continues to look for a second option behind D.K. Metcalf while Calvin Austin III continues to recover from injury.