Thursday Night Football Best Bets Week 11

This will identify player prop lines that seem to have inefficiencies built in that can be considered. Please note that all plays have the risk of losing and that one should never gamble beyond their means.

Drake Maye UNDER 238.5 Passing Yards (-111)

Drake Maye should be leading the discussion for MVP. He’s been awesome all year. However, this is a game where the Patriots should control things, and the game happens to be on the dreaded Thursday Night Football. Expect Maye to be efficient, but he may not get the opportunities to exceed 238.5 yards. Rhamondre Stevenson** and Terrell Jennings are practicing (in a limited fashion), so one or both could be back to add some firepower to the backfield and take additional pressure off Maye, further reducing his passing attempts. Maye could also be without Kayshon Boutte** for a second consecutive week.

**Rhamondre Stevenson and Kayshon Boutte are officially OUT for Thursday

Mason Taylor OVER 32.5 Receiving Yards (-112)

On the one hand, Justin Fields has now had four games of less than 55 passing yards. On the other hand, Garrett Wilson is now expected to miss another 3-4 weeks. Mason Taylor will be the top target in a game where the Jets should trail (is there any other kind of game?). I’m banking on Fields being forced to pass, and he’ll look Taylor’s way often.

Demario Douglas OVER 1.5 Receptions (-167) & OVER 22.5 Receiving Yards (-112)

The New York Jets allow 33.6% (9th most in the NFL) of targets to players lined up in the slot. Douglas has cleared 2+ receptions in all but two games. He also has eclipsed the 22-yard benchmark in his past three games (and four of the previous five). With Boutte** likely out (or at least limited as he recovers from his hamstring injury), Drake Maye will take the easiest matchup, which will include several targets to Demario Douglas.

**Kayshon Boutte is officially OUT for Thursday

Breece Hall OVER 15.5 Receiving Yards (-112)

The New England Patriots allow 17.3% (6th most) of targets to go to opponents’ running backs. While Breece Hall has only totaled 6 targets over his past three games, his target shares have been fine (5.9%, 9.1%, 9.1%). While Breece’s yardage totals haven’t been great, the two recent games where he totaled less than 15.5 receiving yards included a game against Cincinnati, where he rushed for 133 yards on 18 carries, so the Jet’s didn’t need to throw to him and the second game coming against the Panthers who allow the 3rd fewest yards per target to running backs. New England finally allowed a rusher to eclipse 50 yards in Week 10, so Breece will have a tough time on the ground, which should lead to more short targets in an extension of the running game.