The unknown outcome of rookie prospects makes them intriguing. Here are three tiers of picks to trade away and what it’ll take to acquire them.
The History of the Unknown Prospects
Fantasy managers aiming to mitigate risk and prioritize consistent wins often prefer trading for proven talent over banking on rookie potential. I created a model analyzing rookie prospects’ ADP (average draft position) from Rounds 1 and 2 between 2018 and 2024, according to Fantasy Football Calculator. The results revealed that 39.58% of rookies selected in this range achieve either starting-caliber or elite fantasy seasons. Here’s how those break down:
- Starter seasons: RB/WR 13-24 and QB/TE 6-12.
- Elite seasons: RB/WR 1-12 and top five QB/TE.
The findings show:
- 21.13% of these rookies produce good, serviceable starting seasons.
- 18.45% qualify as elite, outperforming expectations.
This data highlights the value of trading rookie picks for more reliable, proven players.
The most valuable draft pick, 1.01, comes with exceptions. For example, Marvin Harrison Jr. (2024) and Clyde Edwards-Helaire (2020) had different trajectories. Harrison has yet to meet expectations after a challenging season in Arizona. Meanwhile, Edwards-Helaire peaked early but is now considered a “bust” following a single impactful NFL season (2020), where he was controversially drafted over Jonathan Taylor.
A Glimpse at 2025’s Incoming Class of Rookies
The consensus for the 2025 prospects is they have an exuberant amount of potential. I used one-quarterback ADP rankings to get a better variety of players to choose from. This rookie class ADP is by FantasyPros.
- Ashton Jeanty
- Tetairoa McMillan
- Omarion Hampton
- TreVeyon Henderson
- Emeka Egbuka
- Tyler Warren
- Luther Burden III (LB3)
- Quinshon Judkins
- Matthew Golden
- Travis Hunter
- Kaleb Johnson
- Cam Ward
Breaking Down Tiers: Who to Target
Tier One: Trade for Top Talent
While you won’t acquire players like Ja’Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb, or Bijan Robinson with Ashton Jeanty, you can target Brock Bowers, a high-upside tight end. Bowers’ incredible rookie profile—153 targets, 112 receptions, and 1,194 yards—gives him an unmatched advantage at his position.
Another excellent target is Drake London. After breaking out in 2024 with 158 targets, 100 receptions, and 1,271 yards, London solidified himself as a reliable WR1. His connection with quarterback Michael Penix only strengthens his long-term value.
Tier Two: Stability with Upside
If you’re seeking reliability, look no further than DJ Moore. Since his rookie season, Moore has consistently finished as WR22 or better, despite subpar quarterback play. His upside includes a top-six WR finish, making him a strong target for picks 1.04 to 1.07.
At quarterback, Jalen Hurts brings unparalleled stability. Over the last three seasons, Hurts has finished as QB6(21.3), QB2(21.9), and QB1(25.6) in average fantasy points per game, according to Player Profiler. Managers holding mid-first-round picks should consider trading for him to secure a “set-it-and-forget-it” quarterback.
Tier Three: Late Picks, Big Moves
This is where creativity pays off. Trade late first-round picks for veteran running backs like James Conner, Najee Harris, Alvin Kamara, or Joe Mixon. Pair these with a late second or early third-round pick to boost your roster. Undervalued RBs like D’Andre Swift, Aaron Jones, or Chuba Hubbard can also be valuable adds.
Prospects like Jalen Milroe, RJ Harvey, or Damien Martinez make excellent throw-ins as late second or early third-round picks. This gives you a potential upside without major risk.
Patience is Key
Waiting until your rookie draft to trade picks can maximize value. As draft buzz builds, the demand for rookie selections will skyrocket, allowing you to capitalize on inflated prices.
Strategy is a Dynasty Manager’s Best Friend
This approach allows you to mitigate risk, improve your roster for 2025, and still indulge in the excitement of rookie drafts. Planting your flag on a late-round rookie who explodes onto the scene is always satisfying. But above all, entering draft season with a well-thought-out strategy will give you a critical edge.
