Every draft season, it’s just as important to know who not to draft as it is to know who to target. While some players carry hype, name value, or inflated ADPs, they won’t be making it onto my rosters this year. These are my guys to fade in 2025, the players I’m avoiding in drafts because the risk outweighs the reward. From early-round traps to overrated sleepers, steering clear of these names could be the key to winning your league.
Quarterback
Patrick Mahomes
Kansas City Chiefs • QB • #15
We will start off with Patrick Mahomes, who by far is one of the greatest quarterbacks in the NFL. Fantasy football is a whole different game though, and Mahomes has been on a slight decline since losing Tyreek Hill a few years ago. The year after losing Hill, Mahomes popped up to QB1 for fantasy, but followed it up with QB8 and QB11 outings.
After throwing for the least amount of yards and tied for least amount of touchdowns of his career and losing the Super Bowl, Mahomes and the Chiefs look to bounce back in 2025. But what does that receiving room look like this year?
Even with Rashee Rice avoiding a suspension in the first four games of the season (could end up getting suspended later), he is still coming back from a gruesome knee injury. I’d expect a slow start for Rice, who could finally get into a rhythm and then be suspended for what could be up to 10 games this year.
Travis Kelce is not the same tight end he was just a few years ago. After being TE1 for seven out of eight years, he has been on a slight decline of TE 3 and TE5 the last two. Like Mahomes, Kelce caught the least amount of yards and touchdowns in 2024 than he has in his entire career.
Xavier Worthy is really the only true weapon that Mahomes will be able to rely on in 2025, but even he can be hot and cold through the season. Worthy recorded seven single digit outings in 16 games last year, one of which was for negative points.
Mahomes is being drafted as QB6 (58th overall) in your leagues which is putting a middle of the 4th round grade on him. In that range, you could draft players like Sam LaPorta, Jameson Williams, George Pickens, or T.J. Hockenson, who should all have good seasons.
Running Back
Breece Hall
New York Jets • RB • #20
Breece Hall is in a contract year for a front office and head coach that did not draft him. New head coach Aaron Glenn has already stated this offseason that the Jets could operate with more a committee approach for the backfield in 2025. Hall is by far the better running back in New York, but do the Jets see the long term plans for him to commit?
The Jets offense is transitioning from a stationary quarterback in Aaron Rodgers to a more mobile one in Justin Fields. This is going to take rushing opportunities away from Hall that he’d normally see. Last year in just six games, we saw Fields 55 times for 231 yards and 5 touchdowns. That’s an equivalent of 53.1 points on the season. If you subtract that from Hall’s 2024 numbers, that would drop him to RB25 on the season.
Breece has a very high ceiling based on pure talent, but the risk of drafting him as RB13 (31st overall) in the middle of the third round is not really selling me on him. After his RB2 season, he’s been on a downward trajectory and could be outplayed by fellow running back Braelon Allen in 2025.
Is he a good player? Yes. Is he worth the risk of a third round pick? Not really. Not when you could easily draft James Cook, Omarion Hampton, or the guy getting Fields’ attention, Garrett Wilson with that same pick.
Wide Receiver
Tyreek Hill
Miami Dolphins • WR • #10
You do not know how close I was to putting Puka Nacua in this slot with the addition of Devante Adams and a giant question mark at the quarterback position. If Jimmy Garoppolo is throwing the ball in Los Angeles, that raises a lot of concern for that wide receiver room. But at the end of the day, Puka is young and getting into his prime, so I left him off this list.
However, Tyreek Hill is coming to the close of his career and has been battling injuries during this offseason. He hasn’t quite been able to get on the field and when he has, the connection with quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has not been there.
Hill is coming off the worst season of his career in which he was not limited by time off the field. He barely outplayed his 2019 season in which he only made it to the field 12 times. With his first season under 1,000 yards since 2019 and lowest touchdown total since his rookie season in 2016, Hill needs a bounce back season.
That season is not this season. This may be the end of Tyreek Hill’s high utilization in fantasy football. I’m not saying he is unstartable, but he is absolutely not a WR1 (and maybe not even a WR2) anymore. People thought it was crazy saying DeAndre Hopkins is no longer that level of receiver anymore, and he has been going undrafted in a ton of leagues for years now.
Tyreek Hill is being drafted as WR13 (28th overall), which is borderline WR1 on your roster. At the 28th pick, you could be drafting someone like Jayden Daniels (29th overall), Jaxon Smith-Njigba (30th overall), or Tee Higgins (32nd overall). Those three guys would make my roster before you saw me draft Tyreek Hill in 2025.
Tight End
Kyle Pitts
Atlanta Falcons • TE • #8
It’s not going to happen. I know, this doesn’t seem like much of a fade. Kyle Pitts has been getting a lot of buzz this offseason with Michael Penix, Jr. showing that Pitts is his favorite target. I am just here to remind you that it is okay to pass on Kyle Pitts. Don’t do it!
It was great when we all drafted Kyle Pitts in 2021 and he was TE6, right? Then he followed it up with TE33, TE13, and TE15! But let the reality sink in. In 2021, Pitts saw 110 targets, getting him 1,026 yards, and 1 touchdown. Then that utilization dropped to 59 targets, up to 90 targets, and back down to 74 targets. I think we are seeing the range of where Kyle Pitts true target share is, and that is somewhere in the 60-80 range.
Kyle Pitts hasn’t been a relevant fantasy tight end since Matt Ryan played for the Atlanta Falcons. We as a fantasy community have to stop trying to make Kyle Pitts a thing. “But Justin, he gets 1 extra touchdown a year! So he will have 5 this year!” NO. Stop it! Stop doing this to yourself.
Kyle Pitts is being drafted as TE15 (135th overall) in the middle of round 11. That is probably a fine spot to draft him if you want to take the risk, but do NOT draft him before that. In fact, don’t draft him at that either. I’d much rather draft someone else in that area than waste the pick on Kyle Pitts. Get him later.
In the middle of the 11th round, you could be drafting J.J. McCarthy (133rd overall), Isaac Guerendo (138th overall), Dallas Goedert (141st overall), or Braelon Allen (147th overall). Those are four guys I’d rather take with my Kyle Pitts pick in the 11th round.
Building a championship roster isn’t only about chasing upside, it’s about dodging landmines. By fading these players in 2025, I’m giving myself the best shot to draft value, avoid unnecessary risk, and construct a team that can dominate from Week 1 through the playoffs. Remember: sometimes the picks you don’t make are the ones that win you the league.
