Situation Leading to Trade
The 49ers owe Deebo Samuel a $15.4 million roster bonus on March 22nd. His declining production in 2024 and cap hit for 2025. The 49ers likely opt to trade Deebo.
2024 Performance Spotlight
After losing star players Christian McCaffrey and Brandon Aiyuk, Samuel’s production dipped in 2024.
- 81 targets (3rd on the team)
- 51 receptions for 670 yards (3rd on the team, 55th in the NFL)
- 6.6 aDOT (Average Depth of Target) – the lowest among 49ers WRs/TEs
- 82nd in total yards from scrimmage (806 yards)
These numbers supported by Pro Football Reference suggest a reduced role in San Francisco’s offense, making him expendable. Ultimately, allowing him to seek a trade.
Denver Idealistic for Deebo
Per SI the Denver Broncos hold $35.7 million in cap space. Meanwhile both franchises established trade history in 2023. The 49ers acquired Randy Gregory. Next, Sean Payton prioritizes high-efficiency targets for quarterbacks. Additionally, known for his creativity and maximizing personnel. Giving Denver a viable option for this role. Making Samuel’s versatility as a receiver and rusher an intriguing fit. To illustrate this over last two seasons in San Francisco, Samuel posted QBR’s of 116.9 (2023) and 96.2 (2024) while being targeted. Concluding Deebo is unique to the NFL and Denver could acquire him via trade.
Denver’s 2024 offensive line ranked 2nd in the NFL by PFF. This includes right tackle Mike McGlinchey who spent his first five seasons in San Francisco. Ultimately joining the Broncos in 2023. With the emergence of Alex Palczewski, PFF scored a win rate of 93.81% over the first 7 weeks. This makes McGlinchey expendable and gives Denver the option to replace him in 2025.
Potential Trade Value
These recent trades provide a guide for Deebo’s value.
- Diontae Johnson – 5th-round pick
- DeAndre Hopkins – 4th-round pick
- Amari Cooper – 3rd- and 7th-round picks
- Davante Adams – 3rd-round pick
- Keenan Allen – 4th-round pick
Samuel’s trade value likely falls in the 3rd to 4th-round pick range. Or a player and potential late-round pick added.
Both Teams Win
Ultimately, Deebo provides Payton with a dynamic offensive weapon. While the 49ers gain draft capital or offensive line reinforcement. With his cap hit and declining numbers. Moving on makes sense for San Francisco if the right offer comes along.
