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Why Wide Receivers?
Dynasty teams frequently build around the WR position. It is the most abundant position as the NFL has become increasingly pass-heavy. Almost every NFL team supports more than one fantasy-relevant WR (sorry New England). Want to know which WRs will succeed before we see it? I’ve identified two prospect profiles to look for. Follow along below to identify the traits to target.
Identifying valuable Wide Receivers ultimately comes down to understanding the term “Breakout”. To avoid confusion and be precise; a player will “Breakout” when they first achieve a 20% share of their team’s receiving offense (aka Dominator Rating). The formula determines how significant a WR’s contribution is to his team’s passing production. For the data folks out there, Dominator Rating is defined as:
WR3 Profile
NFL teams drafted 314 Wide Receivers in the ten drafts from 2013 – 2022. Last season, the weekly cutoffs for WR1 and WR3 production in PPR scoring were approximately 20 fantasy points and 11 fantasy points per game respectively. If we use those thresholds as objective measures of performance, 85 Wide Receivers averaged WR3 or better within their first three years in the league (27.07%).
To drastically improve the odds of finding a useful player (WR3 scoring or better), we only need to apply 3 criteria to the college profiles:
- Was the player drafted in the first three rounds?
- Did the player break out within his first two years following high school?
- Did the player come from either the Big Ten, Southeastern, or Atlantic Coast Conferences?
I’m sticking with current conference alignments, despite the recent shuffling in the changing landscape of NCAA Football. For players drafted on Day 1-2 of the NFL Draft, who broke out within two years, and came from one of these conferences, the success rate for players hitting at least WR3 production within their first three years in the league jumps to 38 players out of a population of 52 (73.08%).
However, don’t just settle for WR3 production. Focus on finding the top-end difference makers. Look for players who quickly become WR1s in the league. It is quite rare, but EXTREMELY valuable due to the usual length of a Wide Receiver’s career. In our population of 314 players, only eight managed to score 20+ fantasy points per game within their first three seasons in the league. That is a meager 2.55%, which helps show why these players are so valuable. Even 1st-round WRs only hit 9.52% of the time.
Don’t despair! I’ve crunched the numbers to find profiles to whittle down the population and leave you with a pool of players much more likely to succeed.
WR1 Profile
To start, let’s trust that the NFL draft is a relatively efficient market. Limit your population to WRs drafted in Round 1 – Round 4, and you immediately increase your hit rate to seven out of 175 (4.00%). The only ‘Early Elite’ WR drafted after Round 4 is Tyreek Hill. We can also look for players from the ACC/B1G/SEC and quickly drop our population to 114 without losing any other ‘Early Elite’ WRs (6.14%).
Broad Jump is the NFL Combine drill that most closely correlates with explosive power and thus is one of my favorite metrics to track for NFL players. From the seven remaining ‘Early Elite’ Wide Receivers, five produced a Broad Jump of 122+ inches. Only DeAndre ‘Nuk’ Hopkins and Keenan Allen failed to meet this mark (Keenan Allen was recovering from injury during his pre-draft process and was unable to test). There is also evidence suggesting that height is a key trait too, as all five remaining ‘Early Elites’ measured 71+ inches. Add these measurement requirements to the sample and you have only 51 players remaining (9.80%).
It takes a modicum of speed, quickness, and agility to separate from NFL-level defensive backs. I prefer to use Speed Score to standardize for the size differences of prospects. Speed Score is:
If we look for WR prospects that hit a Speed Score of greater than 95 and posted both a sub-4.3 Shuttle and 3 Cone drill of 7.03 seconds or better, our population drops to only 16 remaining players, four of whom fall into our ‘Early Elite’ category (25.00%).
When we look at the collegiate timeframes for these players’ success, it becomes clear that producing early in college is an important attribute. By looking only at players who broke out (>20% Dominator Rating) within their first three years after graduating high school we find 11 remaining players – four of which qualified with 20+ PPR points within their first 3 years (36.36%). However, of the seven that did not exceed 20 PPR ppg within their first three years, five did exceed 14.5 ppg, which is the approximate weekly cutoff for WR2 production in a given week, so they aren’t exactly busts, either.
What to remember?
- To summarize the findings, look for WRs that:
- Drafted in Round 1-4
- Played at a school currently in the ACC, B1G, or SEC
- Demonstrate a Broad Jump of at least 122 inches
- Are at least 5’11”
- Demonstrate a Speed Score above 95
- Demonstrate quickness and agility with a sub-4.3 second Shuttle and a 3 Cone time of 7.03 seconds or less
- Broke out within the first three years after high school
2025 2nd and 3rd Year Players Meeting WR Profile Criteria
