Pick the players poised to propel you to the promised land!
Tight End popularity has surged in recent years due to historic seasons from the recent rookie classes. In 2023, Sam LaPorta set the rookie record for TE receptions with 86. Not to be outdone, Brock Bowers set the bar even higher in 2024. Bowers recorded 112 receptions for 1,194 yards – breaking both LaPorta’s reception mark and Mike Ditka’s rookie TE yardage record. In fact, Bowers’ rookie season was so dominant that his 112 receptions set the OVERALL rookie record – not just for TEs.
I’m sure fantasy managers will react appropriately, realizing that no two situations are alike, and thus they will keep expectations in check for the 2025 TE class… In a deep class, there will be many options to choose from in rookie drafts, but if you aren’t sure what to look for – fear not. I can walk you through an analytic profile that has been extremely successful for past NFL prospects.
Research Parameters
Most leagues start only 1 TE (with opportunities to flex additional options). However there has been an increase in TE Premium leagues (TEP), assigning additional points for TE receptions (usually 0.5 or 1 point) as well as additional tight end spots to match typical NFL usage (think 12 personnel). I want to stick with PPR scoring, to ensure I don’t lead players astray overvaluing the position. In 2024, the weekly TE12 averaged 10.55 PPR PPG.
From 2013 – 2022, NFL teams drafted 144 TEs. Only 21 exceeded 10 FPPG within their first three years in the NFL (14.58%). Even looking only at TEs with Day 1 or Day 2 draft capital (Rounds 1-3) provides a bearish 17-out-of-54 sample (31.48%). If you’re happy with that hit rate – by all means, stop here and focus on other topics for your pre-draft research. Otherwise, I’ll dive into the figures to help you find an even tighter profile.
Before talking through the profile – first a shoutout to Relative Athletic Score (@mathbomb.bsky.social) for providing one of the key metrics used in my analysis. As NFL Combine and Pro Day results pour in, the RAS database will be updated to include the 2025 draft class for us to reference in our pre-draft research.
TE1 Profile
As noted above, we start by restricting the population to TEs drafted within the first three rounds to bring our population to a 17-out-of-54 sample (31.48%).
We would like to see players prove they are a receiving threat in college. If we look only at players who averaged two receptions per game or more, we move to a 10-out-of-28 (35.71%) hit rate.
Conventional wisdom in the NFL is that TEs should be faster than LBs and bigger and stronger than DBs. This gives them a mismatch on every play regardless of the coverage scheme. If they are matched up with LBs they can run away from them with superior speed. If a DB rotates into coverage, TEs can use their size and strength to “box out” the defender and hold their position to make the catch. In practice, we can apply a three-part criteria. Look for a Relative Athletic Score above 8 to gauge overall athleticism (include players without testing numbers). Then apply minimum size and speed thresholds of 75+ inches with a Speed Score above 102 (include players without a 40-time). Our population is now at 8-out-of-16 (50%).
We can also look for short area quickness, to enhance the player’s ability to get open with quick changes of direction rather than just straight-line speed. Removing players with a demonstrated Three Cone time at or above 7.15 seconds and a Short Shuttle time above 4.32 seconds brings the sample to 8-out-of-11 (72.73%).
Unlike RB and WR, where players may have different styles, but they ultimately perform the same task (running or catching the football). TEs can also be assigned blocking responsibilities. The only way to make an impact in Fantasy Football is to be on the field. We want to chase TEs that are either trusted blockers or are clear passing game threats. Filter out from our population any player who has a Pass Block Rate below 13% that does not also display at least 2 YPRR. This captures players who either coaches trust to block more than 13% of the time or players that specialize in gaining receiving yardage. Two additional players are eliminated, and our sample becomes 7-out-of-9 (77.78%)
Summary
To maximize your efficiency while drafting TEs for Fantasy – you can apply the following criteria.
- Drafted in Round 1 – Round 3
- Averaged at least 2 receptions per game in college
- RAS greater than 8 (or no testing)
- At least 6’3”
- Speed Score above 102 (or no testing)
- 3 Cone time less than 7.15 (or no testing)
- Short Shuttle time of 4.32 seconds or less (or no testing)
- Blocking at least 13% of passing downs or achieving 2+ YPRR
The added bonus is that the 2 players that failed to hit 10+ PPG (Noah Fant and Pat Freiermuth) did exceed both exceed 9 FPPG in two of their first three seasons. 2023 and 2024 seem on pace to continue proving the criteria. Sam LaPorta and Brock Bowers both beat the 10 PPG mark in their rookie seasons. Tucker Kraft and Dalton Kincaid have both managed to exceed 9 PPG once in their first two seasons. The only concern is Ben Sinnott. He had a very small role during his rookie season, so we will hope to see a big leap in year two!
Missed the other articles? Fear not!
How To Whittle Down Rookie WRs
How To Spot Strong Rookie RB Analytic Profiles
