DraftKings Main Slate Shakedown: Week 1

This weekly series will bring you tips on how to attack the weekly Guaranteed Prize Pool (GPP) tournaments on DraftKings. The player pool is restricted to the Main Slate (Sunday AM/PM games). Look for analysis regarding Game Environments, Good Chalk/Bad Chalk, Stacks, and Leverage Plays.

First, a quick summary of what to consider when building a lineup. The entire goal of playing in GPP tournaments is to finish 1st. The top prize is massive compared to the small returns from barely finishing inside the prize cutoff. Beyond striving for 1st, look for a unique lineup to avoid any split winnings. Focus on the most-likely top-end outcomes and assume hunches will be correct. Pair QBs and pass catchers, so that each TD is counted twice. Identify game environments that should lead to scoring for both teams and include players on both sides.

The easiest way to narrow down what games to target is looking at betting lines for game totals (total points scored). Leverage the spread to identify the implied team totals (i.e. what would be the score if both the total and the spread are correct). Also consider the physical environment – will the game be exposed to weather, and how will that affect play? Rain generally won’t hurt fantasy output much, but wind can impact passing and kicking opportunities.

Game Environments

Bengals at Browns (Total 48, Bengals -5/-5.5); No expected weather impact
This game has been bet up since opening, as the game is expected to be a shootout. The Bengals boast one of the most potent offenses in the NFL, but their defense is evenly poor. The expectation should be that the Bengals will put up points regardless, but the game could be bountiful if the Browns can keep up.

Panthers at Jaguars (Total 46.5, Jaguars -3.5); No expected weather impact
This game should be targeted. The Jaguars are severely mispriced, allowing you to cheaply stack and pay up in other positions. There are also enough options that you can diversify your stacks and end up with a less common entry. The Panthers also have some bargain options, as DFS typically underprices rookies (like Tetairoa McMillan) and can’t adjust to late news like Hunter Renfrow replacing Coker due to injury after the final preseason game.

Saints at Cardinals (Total 47, Cardinals -6.5); Dome
Another game with a total of 47; the Cardinals are projected to handle the Saints. The Cardinals are a condensed offense, with passes split between Marvin Harrison Jr. and Trey McBride. Lean toward the Cardinals’ option(s) that you prefer and hope that New Orleans can put up enough points to push the Cardinals for the whole game.

Buccaneers at Falcons (Total 47, Buccaneers -1.5/-1); Dome
This is one of a handful of high scoring options with a projected competitive spread. Both teams are a bit banged up on the offensive side of the ball, which should consolidate the action to fewer players. The Buccaneers should steer everything through their healthy WRs (Mike Evans and Emeka Egbuka) along with Bucky Irving. Bijan Robinson and Drake London should be the centerpieces for Atlanta, with Kyle Pitts getting a good share of work as well.

Lions at Packers (Total 47, Packers -2); No expected weather impact
A division rivalry where both teams have some important changes. The Lions lost their offensive coordinator but maintain continuity with their skill players – Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery in the backfield; Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, and Sam LaPorta catching passes from Jared Goff. The Packers have some injuries at WR and should feature rookie Matthew Golden in the passing game, while Josh Jacobs dominates the rushing work.

Dolphins at Colts (Total 47, Colts -1/-1.5); Dome
This is an interesting game total, as these two teams have not had great vibes through training camp. There is uncertainty about the Colts’ passing game, after Anthony Richardson lost the QB battle to newcomer Daniel Jones. The weapons are in place between Jonathan Taylor, Josh Downs, Michael Pittman, and Tyler Warren, but we don’t have a great idea of how targets will be distributed. The Dolphins have seemingly been banged up, although it looks like most of their injury reports were precaution rather than true injury concern. The only Dolphin of note carrying an injury designation is Darren Waller who has been ruled out – both Tyreek Hill and De’Vonn Achane are good to go.

Giants at Commanders (Total 46, Commanders -6); No expected weather impact
The total isn’t as high as the other games, but I’m including this game because the Commanders actually have the 3rd highest implied team total for the week (26). If they do score a bunch, Jayden Daniels has week winning upside either by himself or in stacks. The Giants also have only a couple main weapons that would be likely to score if you want to chase this game – Malik Nabers and Tyrone Tracy.

49ers at Seahawks (Total , 49ers -1.5); Chance of rain
An already condensed 49ers team may be even more condensed, as Christian McCaffrey popped up on the injury report on Thursday and then did not practice on Friday. If he were to miss, Brian Robinson would likely absorb his rushing work while additional targets would be filtered to George Kittle, Ricky Pearsall and Jauan Jennings. The Seahawks aren’t as easy to predict, as they lean on the run and there has been speculation of Zach Charbonnet forcing his way into a timeshare.

Texans at Rams (Total 43.5, Rams -3); Dome
If you’re stacking the Texans, it should involve Nico Collins who will dominate targets. Christian Kirk is ruled out, which opens the door for Jaylin Noel to see work in the slot. The Rams scores will almost certainly come from one of three sources: Puka Nacua, Davante Adams, or Kyren Williams. Stafford is expected to play, so fire up the Rams as you normally would, despite the recent rest for his back injury.

Titans at Broncos (Total 42.5, Broncos -8.5); Chance of rain
If you’re playing this game, it should be on the Broncos – a 25.5 team total is a good place to start. Bo Nix was extremely effective in his rookie year, and he added Evan Engram as a main target. The running game should be much improved via the acquisitions of R.J. Harvey and J.K. Dobbins. You never know what you’re going to get from a rookie QB in his first start. Ward should focus his attention on Calvin Ridley and to a lesser extent Elic Ayomanor and Chig Okonkwo. Pollard does get the backfield to himself with Tyjae Spears opening the season on IR, but the matchup is not great.

Steelers at Jets (Total 38/37.5, Steelers -3/-2.5); No expected weather impact
A low game total, with two teams that have questionable passing offenses and have indicated a desire to use a Running-Back-By-Committee approach… If you want to roll the dice here, good luck.

Chalk

Achane will be a popular pick for Week 1. Achane is the interesting running back who has multiple outs every week. In 2024, Achane led all RBs in receptions (78), receiving yards (592) and finished 2nd in receiving yards after contact (189 vs 190 for James Conner). He can either excel on limited touches, as his 7.77 YPC mark in 2023 led the league his rookie year (min 100 ATT) or he can get work done through the air if the Dolphins are trailing. Achane is more volatile than some RBs, but he has scored a 50-point game (Week 3 of 2023) and topped 25 points in 7 of 28 career games. He also has recorded 8 games under 10 points. You won’t want to over-expose yourself to Achane, but when he hits, you need him. Good Chalk.

Brown owns a full-time role in the most potent offense in the league. From Week 9 on in 2024, after Zack Moss was lost for the season, Brown recorded at least 13 points per game every week. He topped 19 points in 6 of 8 games and topped 22 in 4 of them. However, he likely lacks the top end outcomes of other options. Brown has not posted a 30-point game in his first two seasons. Bad Chalk.

For $7300, you can get a RB who in his full seasons since 2018 has AVERAGED over 20 points per game. In those seasons he has scored 30+ points in 22 of 65 games (40+ in 7, 50+ in 3). The question for McCaffrey is health, as he popped up on the injury report with a calf injury. He’s too good to not have exposure to. Good Chalk.

Thomas plays the X WR for Liam Coen’s new team and will inherit the Mike Evans role, which should include most of the deep opportunities that are dialed up. As a rookie, Thomas broke the 20-point threshold 7 times, including the final 4 games of the year. He even topped 30 points in 2 of those 4. He received double digit targets every week starting in Week 13, and Coen has talked about how they have to get him the ball. Good Chalk.

Chase is one of the elite WRs in today’s NFL. He was the top-scoring fantasy WR in 2024, and enters the season healthy in a similar environment. He posted four separate 30+ games last year, including a 58.4, 48.1, and 44.3. This seems like a no-brainer. However, he only exceeded 25 points twice in games the Bengals won. Cincinnati is favored by 5 points. Bad Chalk.

It is fair to say that Lawrence has under-achieved thus far in his career. The former #1 overall pick has only posted a 22-38 record. He has only exceeded 25 points in 10 of 60 games. So why the optimism for Week 1? He’s cheap – $5300 gives you a lot of room to operate elsewhere. He only needs to hit a 21.2 to hit 4x, so while exceeding 25 doesn’t happen often, he doesn’t need to in this case. He also has Brian Thomas Jr. and #2 overall pick Travis Hunter to throw to in Liam Coen’s new offense. Coen coached Baker to 7 games of at least 27 points last year. Good Chalk.

Egbuka steps into the Chris Godwin role unopposed. That yielded 3 games (of 7 before injury) of at least 22 points. Is Emeka Egbuka as good as Chris Godwin? We don’t know, but he doesn’t have to be. At a price tag of $4600, he only needs to get to 18.4 points to hit 4x — and Egbuka should be in line for a healthy number of targets as the #2 option in the passing game. Good Chalk.

Drake London leveled out last season spending from Week 13-18 priced at either $6400 or $6500. In Penix’s 3 starts, London scored 10.9, 20.6 and 43.7. It’s a bit riskier than some of the other chalk with some of the dud games that London has posted (albeit with poor QB play earlier in his career), but he is the clear top option in the passing game in a game where his team is projected to lose. The WR2 for the Falcons, Darnell Mooney, is questionable as he is recovering from a shoulder injury and hasn’t practiced for several weeks in training camp. Double digit targets are likely for London, and in the 2024 edition of this matchup, London did hit 36.4 points. Good Chalk.

Kamara is the ultimate PPR weapon. With a dysfunctional offense in 2024, he still managed to post a 44-point game and caught fewer than 4 passes in only 2 games all season. The problem is, his situation hasn’t changed much. The Saints head into 2025 with Spencer Rattler at the helm, and with Rattler, Kamara topped out at 18.2 points. Bad Chalk.

Evans reached 23+ points in 6 of 14 games last year, and he hit 28+ 3 times. He should be heavily targeted as Chris Godwin and Jalen McMillan are not available, and Cade Otton has been on the injury report leading up to the game. Evans doesn’t provide a very clean floor, though, as he finished with single digit points 4 times last season. He’s a bit of a tricky call, as hitting 4x is certainly within his range of outcomes, but as the big play threat for Tampa Bay, his floor is more of a hole that could sink your proverbial pirate ship. Bad Chalk.

Conner heads into 2025 with a solid matchup to start the year. He should be fresh and healthy, which bodes well. In the Cardinals’ 6 wins from 2024, Conner scored at least 14 points in all, and exceeded 20 points in 3, with a high of 33.8. There’s not a strong lean one way or the other, but since he has hit 30+ and has a good matchup… Good Chalk.

Dealing with injury for portions of the season, Njoku’s overall numbers aren’t that impressive. However, from Week 7-16, he posted 17+ in 5 of the 8 contests, which also included games of 14.6 and 23.6 against the Brown’s Week 1 opponent, Cincinnati. Good Chalk.

As a rookie, McMillan doesn’t have historical data to leverage, but if we look at the weekly projections, he should be in the Courtland Sutton/Jerry Jeudy/DK Metcalf/Marvin Harrison Jr. range. Jeudy is the cheapest of those options at $5400, so this price appears to be a discount. His target competition is Xavier Legette, who only achieved 14+ points in a single game, last year and managed a TOTAL of 16.7 points across 3 games during QB Bryce Young’s hot finish to the season in Weeks 15-18. The slot will be manned by Hunter Renfrow, who, while a dependable target, was cut before being resigned due to a Jalen Coker injury. Another gamble, but this feels like… Good Chalk.

Taylor reached 20 rushing attempts 10 times in 2024. Those games resulted in only 1 game below 17 points, and included games of 42.8, 30.6, 29.5, and 28. Taylor gives you a nice floor in a good matchup with the potential to have huge game. Good Chalk.

Stacks

Panthers at Jaguars:
Trevor Lawrence + 1-3 of Brian Thomas Jr., Travis Hunter, and Brenton Strange.
This will be a popular stack as all four of these players feel underpriced based upon expectations. In multi-entry tournaments I’m probably playing a couple different combinations looking to hit a 3-4 passing touchdown game from Lawrence against a soft Panthers’ defense. The stack also gives you the option of a bring back with either Tetairoa McMillan or Chuba Hubbard.

Saints at Cardinals:
Kyler Murray + 1 of Marvin Harrison Jr. or Trey McBride.
With mobile QBs of Murray’s ilk, the hope is to get a big rushing game, so you won’t want to jam in too many Cardinals (unless you think the Saints will keep up enough to keep pressure on). If you can get a good game out of Harrison or McBride to pair with it, you’ve got a solid start on your build. There are a couple safe options on the Saints, in Kamara and Olave, but they’ll need to do their scoring with volume, as the Saints aren’t likely to score many points.

Dolphins at Colts:
Tua Tagovailoa + De’Von Achane.
This is a bit of a sneaky stack, as most RBs aren’t particularly complementary to their QB. However, Achane could legitimately catch 6+ passes (it happened 8 times in 2024), and he’s a threat to score from anywhere on the field. Jonathan Taylor is also one of the top plays of the week to get another player in the same game environment to help your correlation.

Giants at Commanders:
Russell Wilson + Malik Nabers.
While many people are going to jump on Jayden Daniels this week, I’m interested in the other signal caller, as it not only provides a reasonable stack, but it should give you a relatively different lineup. There are also some interesting ways to bring back a Commander that would leverage against Daniels. If Nabers goes nuclear, he’ll drag Russ to a respectable score that would pay off his $5000 price tag.

49ers at Seahawks:
Brock Purdy + 1-2 of Ricky Pearsall, George Kittle, and Christian McCaffrey.
This doesn’t feel like an offense where you try to fully stack. However, McCaffrey has been known to have big receiving games at times, and the WR group is pretty banged up, even if Jennings is suiting up. Including Kittle in the stack would cover your TE spot, and he has as high of a single game ceiling as any other TE in the league. Pearsall is just too cheap to ignore as well. $4500 for what could be Purdy’s top target? It won’t make sense to play all of the options, but there are a lot of ways to play this combination and come out happy.

Leverage Plays

Jaguars’ RBs:
Travis Etienne $5400 or Tank Bigsby $4600
While the passing game is pretty clear with condensed options for Trevor Lawrence to throw to, the RB room is one of the murkiest situations in the league. I’d be happy to sprinkle in some shares of Etienne or Bigsby to try to cover the scenarios where the game environment is awesome, but the scoring comes via the ground. Etienne had a poor season for fantasy in 2024, but now he has a new coaching staff that could decide to give him a fresh start. He’s only a year removed from his RB3 overall finish where he scored 21+ points 6 times. Bigsby is even cheaper, and he did post a pair of 26+ point games last year even with Etienne sharing the backfield. If these RBs do hit, it could crater a lot of lineups that chased the Trevor Lawrence – Brian Thomas Jr. (and possibly Travis Hunter or Brenton Strange) stack.

Bucky Irving, RB TB, $7100
Irving isn’t a typical leverage option, as he should be substantially owned himself. However, with the number of entries that will gravitate towards Emeka Egbuka and Mike Evans, if the scoring comes on the ground for Tampa Bay, Bucky could pay off his price and tank some entries at the same time.

Kyle Pitts, TE ATL, $4300
With Bijan Robinson and Drake London stealing most of the attention in this game, Pitts actually has a pretty good matchup. Tampa Bay played Cover 3 at the highest rate in the NFL in 2024, and Kyle Pitts posted a nice 2.71 YPRR against Cover 3. His two best games of last year… 25.1 and 15.8 points against Tampa Bay.

Browns’ RBs:
Jerome Ford $5600 or Dylan Sampson $4900
If the Browns manage to stay in the game for a while, they may try to ride their running game to try to steal a win and keep Cincinnati’s offense off the field. The defense is soft enough that this possibility shouldn’t be dismissed. If the touches are consolidated to one of the two backs, this could end up in a very heavy workload against a bad defense. Cleveland dominating in the run game would limit the need to target David Njoku and Jerry Jeudy while also limiting the opportunities for Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Chase Brown to score by shortening the game a couple possessions.