Thursday Night Football Best Bets Week 10

This will identify player prop lines that seem to have inefficiencies built in that can be considered. Please note that all plays have the risk of losing and that one should never gamble beyond their means.

Geno Smith OVER 208.5 Passing Yards (-111)

Geno Smith. First thing that comes to mind? If you answered “washed” or “dust” or anything of that nature, you’re like most of the football-watching population. However, the Broncos are without Patrick Surtain, which should help the Las Vegas passing game quite a bit. The pass rush is still formidable, so Smith will need to get the ball out quickly, but for a game in which Las Vegas should trail, expect Smith to pass enough to get over his benchmark.

Tre Tucker OVER 44.5 Receiving Yards (-109)

Jakobi Meyers is gone. The offense will now run through Brock Bowers. The Broncos know that too. Expect them to try to limit (there’s no stopping Bowers) the damage he can do, which should leave favorable situations for Tre Tucker. With Surtain out, Tucker will likely face Jahdae Barron for the majority of the night. Jahdae Barron may be fast enough to keep up with Tucker to some extent (4.39 40-yard dash vs Tucker’s 4.32), but he’s been poor in coverage. Look for Tucker to break at least one big play tonight that should put him over his number.

Jack Bech OVER 12.5 Receiving Yards (-113)

Jack Bech has a tough assignment. Riley Moss is a solid defender, but Bech steps into what should be a full-time role. Running 30 routes or so, he should easily clear 12.5 receiving yards, even with muted success against Moss. He doesn’t have a ton of upside in this matchup, but 12.5 is VERY low.

Brock Bowers OVER 68.5 Receiving Yards (-113)

THAT was the Brock Bowers we came to know and love. After putting up 103 yards in Week 1, he has been on the injury report and missed time with a knee sprain. Returning in Week 9 after the bye, he picked up where he (or at least his healthy self) left off with 127 yards against Jacksonville. Look for more of the same while Geno Smith looks to force-feed their best weapon in a game where the Raiders will be looking to play catch up.

BONUS BET: Tre Tucker LADDERED OVER Receiving Yards (Up to 140+)
15+ Receiving Yards (-830), 25+ Receiving Yards (-350), 40+ Receiving Yards (-140), 50+ Receiving Yards (+115), 60+ Receiving Yards (+183), 70+ Receiving Yards (+272), 80+ Receiving Yards (+408), 90+ Receiving Yards (+620), 100+ Receiving Yards (+910), 110+ Receiving Yards (+1340), 120+ Receiving Yards (+2000), 130+ Receiving Yards (+2800), 140+ Receiving Yards (+3900)

This is a different style of bet, in which you can combine multiple alternative line OVER bets with increasingly better payouts. I like these long-shot bets when big-play receivers (or running backs) have lines that I project as much too low for the situation.

In this situation, Tre Tucker should be an every-down player with Jakobi Meyers traded. His team is likely to be playing from behind, boosting the Raiders’ passing volume. Patrick Surtain is out with a pectoral injury, leaving a depleted secondary. I have Tucker projected at 72.9 receiving yards, and this ladder would provide minimal losses (-0.19 units) if Tucker can reach 70 yards. However, with the larger payouts for the higher yardage totals, it can provide huge returns if things break the right way.

So, why Tre Tucker? First, we’ve seen it happen. He has hit 70+ yards in both Week 3 (145) and Week 6 (70). Both of these games saw the Raiders trying to play catch up on the road. We have also seen Tucker create big plays consistently. He boasts a 4.32 second 40-yard dash, which has helped him produce a catch of more than 20 yards in five of eight games this season. Those are the plays that can create a significant variance over projected receiving yards.