Thursday Night Football Best Bets

This will identify player prop lines that seem to have inefficiencies built in that can be considered. Please note that all plays have the risk of losing and that one should never gamble beyond their means.

DeVonta Smith Over 50.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

This both looks at projections and relative player lines, but walking through the analysis should point out why this line sticks out. In 2024, Smith received 21.4% target share (A.J. Brown had a 23.2% target share). So far in 2025, both wide receivers have a higher target share – 22.7% and 27.3% respectively. This suggests that we should be seeing similar production to last year, with A.J. Brown being a bit more productive. However, that has not been the case, as DeVonta Smith has outproduced A.J. Brown in 4 of 5 games. The only game in which A.J. Brown exceeded DeVonta Smith’s receiving yards was the one in which Smith gained 60 yards himself.

The Giants have allowed pretty much a league-average yards per reception for wide receivers, so we shouldn’t expect the Eagles’ wide receivers to deviate from their expectations much. In fact, the Giants actually allow slightly more receptions per game to opposing wide receivers, so there may even be slightly more than expected opportunities.

Stat projections are in line with the Jalen Hurts passing yards line (197.5) and a bit higher on both A.J. Brown & DeVonta Smith receiving yards line (59.5 & 49.5). If we expect that it is more likely that A.J. Brown & DeVonta Smith will go over their receiving yards line, the usage in 2025 suggests that the lines should be extremely close, but there is a significant gap. Let’s take the extra wiggle room with DeVonta Smith OVER 48.5 receiving yards.

Saquon Barkley Over 15.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

In 2024, Saquon Barkley received only a 10.2% target share. He averaged a healthy 6.5 yards per target, so he should only need about three targets to hit this mark on average. This year, Barkley has earned a 14.4% target share, and he has been even more efficient with 6.7 yards per target. At this target share, we would only need Jalen Hurts to pass 21 times to expect the necessary targets for Saquon. Hurts exceeded this mark in each of the first five weeks this season; there should be plenty of opportunity for Saquon.

Saquon Barkley Over 2.5 Receptions (-118)

Since we think Saquon Barkley will get enough volume to easily hit his receiving yards, he’ll also hit his receptions.  He has at least three catches in four of five games and should continue that stretch against the Giants on Thursday night.