DraftKings Main Slate Shakedown: Week 5

This weekly series will bring you tips on how to attack the weekly Guaranteed Prize Pool (GPP) tournaments on DraftKings. The player pool is restricted to the Main Slate (Sunday AM/PM games). Look for analysis regarding Game Environments, Good Chalk/Bad Chalk, Stacks, and Leverage Plays.

First, a quick summary of what to consider when building a lineup. The entire goal of playing in GPP tournaments is to finish 1st. The top prize is massive compared to the small returns from barely finishing inside the prize cutoff. Beyond striving for 1st, look for a unique lineup to avoid any split winnings. Focus on the most-likely top-end outcomes and assume hunches will be correct. Pair QBs and pass catchers, so that each TD is counted twice. Identify game environments that should lead to scoring for both teams and include players on both sides.

The easiest way to narrow down what games to target is looking at betting lines for game totals (total points scored). Leverage the spread to identify the implied team totals (i.e. what would be the score if both the total and the spread are correct). Also consider the physical environment – will the game be exposed to weather, and how will that affect play? Rain generally won’t hurt fantasy output much, but wind can impact passing and kicking opportunities.

Raiders at Colts (Total 48, Colts -7); Dome
The expectation for this game has shifted significantly. With injury news and expected usage tweaks, the total has jumped from opening at 41.5 to 48, and the spread, which began at Colts -1.5, has ballooned to Colts -7. It seems obvious we should be targeting pieces of the Colts’ offense and specifically the Raiders’ passing game. Late injury news has tight end Michael Mayer already ruled out and Brock Bowers unlikely to play on Sunday, which concentrates the Raiders’ passing game more than normal and makes their options more appealing.

Chalk:

Taylor has been awesome through 4 games. He’s tallied 527 yards and 4 touchdowns, but that’s part of the problem. His production has driven his price up to $8000. The Raiders are not a good matchup for running backs, as they have instead given up a lot of production through the air. Expect the Colts to attack through the air, with Taylor putting up a modest game compared to his averages to date. Bad Chalk.

Tyler Warren comes in as the 6th best fantasy tight end in points per game (13.0). He has done that while only scoring once, which means he is getting consistent volume. You can’t ask for a lot more from the tight end position. Trey McBride is priced at $5800, so Warren’s $4700 salary is a bargain. Good Chalk.

Jakobi Meyers was already going to be “Good Chalk”. Then the reports came out that Las Vegas is likely to be without Brock Bowers and Michael Mayer. Meyers was already earning a 24.4% target share to lead the Raiders. With even less competition for targets, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him top 30%. I haven’t even had to mention that the Colts are giving up the 4th most fantasy points to wide receivers and the Raiders are projected to lose and be forced to pass. Good Chalk.

Stacks:

Geno Smith + 1 – 2 of Jakobi Meyers or Tre Tucker.
Expect Meyers to be targeted early and often as Geno Smith will need a go-to weapon to replace the production of tight ends Brock Bowers and Michael Mayer. It seems more likely that either A) Meyers gets peppered with targets and puts up a PPR fever-dream stat line or B) Tre Tucker hits on a few BIG plays for another ridiculous stat line. The recommendation is to pick one or the other, but there may be enough volume to go around and support both if you believe this game could go nuclear.

Daniel Jones + 1 – 2 of Michael Pittman, Tyler Warren, Adonai Mitchell, or Josh Downs.
The Raiders stack is preferred, as it is easier to predict and likely more concentrated. However, an implied team total of 27.5 suggests getting some exposure to the Colts’ offense as well. Pittman and Warren are the preferred option, as they have been consistently involved week to week. However, Jones has shown a fondness for targeting Adonai Mitchell who will be filling the Alec Pierce role once again. The last option is Downs, who is probably their best wide receiver for real football, but his role has been cannibalized by Tyler Warren.

Leverage:

Ashton Jeanty, RB LV, $6700:
Perhaps the game script prediction is wrong, and the Raiders get out to a lead. In such a scenario, Jeanty may get another heavy workload and he is always a threat to score multiple touchdowns. He could simultaneously have a boom game and detract from lineups that choose to chase a Raiders stack or chalk like Jakobi Meyers.

Daniel Jones, QB IND, $5800:
The chalkiest player on the Colts’ team will be Jonathan Taylor. To leverage off Taylor, look to the Colts’ passing game. Jones could either be the engine for the offense against a poor Raiders’ secondary, or the game script could be bad and the Colts could need to play catch up. Either scenario is realistic and provides a chance for lineups with Jonathan Taylor to fail, while getting a boom game from your quarterback.

Giants at Saints (Total 42, Saints -2); Dome
Jaxson Dart looks to start his career 2-0 as the Giants visit the Saints. However, this game provides the rare opportunity for the Saints to be the favorite. We’ll get our first full game look at how Dart distributes targets without Malik Nabers on the field, after he was lost for the season to an ACL injury in Week 4. The Saints offense has been running through Chris Olave, who has earned a 28.2% target share (ranking 3rd in the NFL with 10.5 targets per game). The opportunity hasn’t paid off, yet, but that may be what makes Olave a strong play; his metrics are better than his production to date.

Chalk:

Chris Olave has earned the 2nd most targets per game among NFL wide receivers in 2025 (10.8). The production hasn’t been there, yet, but that has kept his price down at $5200. He now gets a New York Giants defense that has given up the second most points to opposing wide receivers. This is the breakout spot. Good Chalk.

Stacks:
Spencer Rattler + Chris Olave.
A pretty specific stack, but only Juwan Johnson has recorded a higher than 20% target share (20.8%). Johnson is questionable this week and may not be full-go in addition to facing extra competition for usage with Taysom Hill returning to the lineup. That leaves only Chris Olave to pair with Rattler. It won’t be a common stack, but both pieces are affordable if you think that Olave finally connects on his opportunities.

Leverage:

Rashid Shaheed, WR NO, $4500:
Shaheed is a player that can get the job done without needing a big target share. He has posted a 16.8% target share in 2025, which is respectable, but he actually led the Saints with a 22.7% target share in 2024, before his season ending injury. Shaheed has the speed to hit a big play on any target, and long scores would limit the number of targets available for Chris Olave.

Cowboys at Jets (Total 47.5, Cowboys -1.5); No expected weather impact
Dallas will line up without star wide receiver CeeDee Lamb for the second consecutive game. That leaves George Pickens to lead the passing game as the clear top target, but don’t forget about Jake Ferguson, who ranks 5th in the NFL with 9.8 targets per game. The Cowboys have been great for fantasy, as they have a solid offense and a terrible defense. Given the health of the teams, this actually ends up being two very condensed offenses, as Breece Hall will only be splitting work with Isaiah Davis after Braelon Allen injured his knee on Monday night. The only passing game targets that earn significant work are superstar wide receiver Garrett Wilson and rookie tight end Mason Taylor.

Chalk:

George Pickens assumes the top wide receiver role for Dallas while CeeDee Lamb is out. That has translated to 20 targets, 202 yards, and 3 total touchdowns over two games. The Jets have been decent against wide receivers, but Dallas always needs to score to have a chance in games, as their defense is just plainly bad.

Justin Fields gets the best possible matchup against Dallas. He should be able to attack it through the air with Garrett Wilson or Mason Taylor. If needed, he is also one of the better rushing quarterbacks in the league, and Dallas has given up the 6th most quarterback rushing yards. Good Chalk.

Breece Hall is a bargain at $5600. He is a dual threat running back who will see less competition for touches following the Braelon Allen injury. He should feast against the Dallas defense, and he can’t even be impacted heavily by a negative game script due to his pass catching. Good Chalk.

Garrett Wilson will get the opportunity to see a ton of volume against a poor Dallas secondary. He is averaging nearly 10 targets a game, and his only target competition on the roster is rookie Mason Taylor and the running backs. Expect Wilson to smash at $6100. Good Chalk.

Stacks:

Dak Prescott + 1 – 2 of George Pickens or Jake Ferguson.
We’ve seen what happens when Dak gets hot, and he’s been playing at an elite level so far this year. If you can pick the right combination of weapons, a Cowboys stack can get you a leg up against your competition, as they have already scored 40 points twice this season.

Justin Fields + 0 – 2 of Garrett Wilson, Mason Taylor, or Breece Hall.
You may have heard that Dallas is the best matchup a quarterback can face this year. They been bad against both passing and rushing quarterbacks, so Fields could have a big day in several different ways. The obvious stack is with Fields’ top target, Garrett Wilson, but Mason Taylor has seen an increase in playing time and targets each week as the season has progressed. It won’t be surprising when he has a boom game, at least to those that have been paying attention. You could also get extra fancy and stack Breece Hall, who is a solid pass catching running back. Dallas has given up the third most receiving yards to running backs.

Leverage:

Jake Ferguson, TE DAL, $4800:
Ferguson can provide some leverage against George Pickens. While Pickens should get plenty of volume again, his stat line could fall flat if Ferguson were to vulture the touchdowns. A line of 6-70-0 doesn’t kill you in DFS, but it wouldn’t be what folks are looking for when playing George Pickens this week.

Isaiah Davis, RB NYJ, $4000:
Davis is a deeper play that can provide leverage off several Jets. He should get a fair amount of work, as he was already involved some prior to the Braelon Allen injury. While most lineups will target some combination of Breece Hall, Justin Fields, Garrett Wilson, and perhaps Mason Taylor; Davis could be the piece that keeps each of them from hitting a boom game. He won’t take a ton to payoff his $4000 price, either.

Broncos at Eagles (Total 43.5, Eagles -4); No expected weather impact
A Brocos offense that has underwhelmed visits an Eagles team that is not particularly fantasy friendly (unless you’ve been playing the DST and capitalized on blocks and return touchdowns). It’s not a great matchup for any of the major pieces. If you’re going to play pieces in the game, Saquon Barkley is your best bet, and since the QBs have rushing upside, they could also put up good totals. However, it’s one that screams trap-game from a fantasy perspective.

Chalk:

None.

Stacks:

None

Leverage:

None

Dolphins at Panthers (Total 44.5, Dolphins -1.5); mild gusts up to 15mph
Injuries have reshaped this game and made it one to target, despite the modest 44.5 total. With Tyreek Hill lost for the season, expect Jaylen Waddle to take a much more prominent role in the offense. For the Panthers, starting running back Chuba Hubbard is expected to miss the game, leaving Rico Dowdle to lead the backfield. With these depth chart changes not fully built into the pricing models, there is inefficiency worth exploiting.

Chalk:

De’Von Achane is essentially a starting running back and starting wide receiver in a single roster spot. In PPR formats, he smashes, as he always puts up good yardage totals between his work on the ground and via the pass. The Dolphins pepper him with short targets looking to get him in space as an extension of the running game. Good Chalk.

Jaylen Waddle’s raw statistics for 2025 aren’t all that impressive. However, he assumes the role as the Dolphins’ top wide receiver after Tyreek Hill was lost for the season. That means that approximately 25% of Tua Tagovailoa’s passes now have to find different targets, and Waddle should absorb a lot of them. Good Chalk.

Rico Dowdle will lead the Carolina backfield against the Dolphins due to Chuba Hubbard’s ankle injury. Miami gives up the 7th most points to opposing running backs, and we have seen Dowdle have success in a lead role with Dallas last year. We know he can catch passes, so he should be immune to bad game scripts. Good Chalk.

Stacks:

Tua Tagovailoa + 1 – 3 of Jaylen Waddle, Darren Waller, or De’Von Achane.
With Tyreek Hill removed from the equation, the passing game should consolidate around Waddle, Waller, and Achane. Malik Washington will be involved as well, but he hasn’t proven himself reliable, yet and is better used as leverage than in a stack. Waddle is the preferred option, as we’ve seen him dominate at times with elite target shares when Tyreek Hill has been out previously. However, we also saw Darren Waller receive all of the end zone targets on Monday night. Achane is one of the rare backs that gets passes as an extension of the running game and he brings the big-play explosiveness that can create a boom week even without a big workload.

Leverage:

Ollie Gordon, RB MIA, $4800:
Gordon is worth a mention, as he’s taken over the short yardage role in Miami. If the Dolphins get down inside the 5, expect it to be Gordon rather than Achane, so the possibility is there of a multi-touchdown game that would cap all of the other pieces in the offense. At $4800, 30 yards and 2 touchdowns is already 3X value.

Texans at Ravens (Total 40.5, Texans -1.5); No expected weather impact
It is surprising to see the Ravens as home dogs, but that is life without MVP candidate Lamar Jackson. We’ll see if Cooper Rush can keep the offense running, but the Texans defensive front is likely to give Baltimore some trouble. If the Ravens can’t establish the run with Derrick Henry, they may not be able to move the ball enough to keep up with the Texans.

Chalk:

None.

Stacks:

C.J. Stroud + Nico Collins.
If any of the Texans’ wide receivers can put together a monster game, it’s Nico Collins. The issue this year has been whether the Texans’ offensive line can protect C.J. Stroud long enough for him to find Collins down the field.

Leverage:

Justice Hill, RB BAL, $5000:
It will sound counter-intuitive, but I would have liked this play better if Hill had not had a boom game last week. He has the ability to put up big numbers, but he so often plays behind Derrick Henry, and the opportunities to shine have been limited as Baltimore rarely gets into particularly negative game scripts. However, this matchup sets up extremely well. Cooper Rush doesn’t run much, so he is more likely to dump the ball off to a running back to spike Hill’s volume. At the same time, we see Houston favored, so there is a chance we get into a negative game script that will call for more Justice Hill (the long down and distance running back), rather than the expected carries for Derrick Henry.

Titans at Cardinals (Total 41.5, Cardinals -7.5); Dome
After several putrid offensive performances, it is hard to find a case to target any game involving the Titans, and especially so when the expectation is that the opponent, the Arizona Cardinals, are going to use a three-player running back rotation. However, there is a chance that the Cardinals’ passing game carries the day, and it is consolidated enough to make a reasonable stacking option. On the Titans’ side, there really isn’t much to like, but individual pieces could pop, such as rookie wide receiver Elic Ayomanor or tight end Chig Okonkwo.

Chalk:

Trey McBride has been Kyler Murray’s top target in 2025, as expected. However, the Cardinals are 7.5-point home favorites, so they may not need to throw a lot. The Titans are also pretty good against tight ends, having allowed the 9th-fewest points to opposing tight ends. We’ve seen McBride struggle to score touchdowns, despite awesome volume, and there are just plainly better options this week at lower prices. Bad Chalk.

Stacks:

Kyler Murray + 1 – 2 of Trey McBride or Marvin Harrison Jr.
The Titans are just not playing well right now, so why not take a shot on the passing game in a get-right spot after a disappointing Week 4 loss? Murray has the ability to spike his score with his work on the ground, and he really only targets McBride and Harrison Jr. with any consistency. If you can get the right combination, whether that is stacking with just one option or including both, it should be a low-owned stack that could challenge some of the more popular options.

Leverage:

Michael Carter, RB ARI, $4000:
Zonovan Knight, RB ARI, $4000:
The Cardinals are rumored to be leaning towards a “hot-hand” approach with their running backs. While that typically is a bad thing, if you correctly guess which back will be the hot-hand, it can pay off very nicely given that both backs are minimum-priced at $4000. Michael Carter will be the more popular leverage play, as he is likely to receive the first opportunity to establish the run. However, in bigger tournaments, Zonovan Knight provides the same upside at a fraction of the projected ownership.

Buccaneers at Seahawks (Total 44.5, Seahawks -3.5); wind gusts up to 15 mph
This game probably won’t turn into a shootout, but if you’re entering multiple lineups, there are enough good weapons on each side that it could be sneaky. I expect the Seahawks will be able to move the ball at home against the Bucs, but we’ll see how the Bucs handle a tough Seattle defense without Mike Evans or Bucky Irving. If Baker Mayfield and a Rachaad White/Sean Tucker combination at running back can keep the offense chugging along, Emeka Egbuka and Chris Godwin provide enough juice to push Seattle to keep their foot on the gas for the whole game.

Chalk:

Rachaad White is another backup running back making a spot start. However, we’ve seen him in the lead role before, and we know he can produce, even if he hasn’t been the most efficient. The important thing is that we know he will handle passing down work, as he was already pitching in while Bucky Irving was healthy. At $4700, White will get good volume, with high value touches, and he shouldn’t be impacted by game script. Good Chalk.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s usage has been awesome to start 2024. The way to attack Tampa Bay is through the air, and the game is projected to stay close. Expect the good times to continue with Smith-Njigba as he should continue to be one of the top wide receiver options in the NFL. Good Chalk.

Stacks:

Baker Mayfield + 1 – 3 of Emeka Egbuka, Chris Godwin, or Rachaad White.
I don’t know if Emeka Egbuka can keep this up, but the kid has been on fire to start his career. He should continue to be Mayfield’s top target with Mike Evans sidelined, but don’t be surprised if Godwin gets nearly the same number of targets. He got quite a few looks in his first game back from injury, but struggled to connect with Mayfield, so the stat line was underwhelming. You can also think about including Rachaad White, as he is the pass-catching running back. He provides an extra option and one that can differentiate your lineup in larger tournaments.

Sam Darnold + 1 – 2 of Jaxon Smith-Njigba or Ken Walker III.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba is a no-brainer to pair with Darnold. The Seahawks are expected to attack Tampa Bay through the air, and JSN is the clear top target. Ken Walker III is the preferred pass-catching back for the Seahawks, so he could be a sneaky play as the other receivers have yet to truly step up and separate from the group.

Leverage:

Sean Tucker, RB TB, $4000:
Another minimum-priced running back set to get decent usage. He’s a surprisingly good player that has just been stuck behind even better players. In his only career game where he received more than 10 touches, he tallied 192 scrimmage yards with 3 catches and 2 touchdowns. While everyone flocks to Rachaad White, make sure to keep Tucker in the back of your mind.

Lions at Bengals (Total 49.5, Lions -10.5); wind gusts up to 10 mph
This should have been a highly anticipated matchup of two of the NFL’s best offenses. Then Joe Burrow got hurt, and the Bengals have been back to their “Bungles”-selves. Expect the Lions to control the game, and hope that the Bengals can figure out how to move the ball, which they have struggled to do outside of the comeback against Jacksonville.

Chalk:

Jahmyr Gibbs… he gets the football, he scores the touchdowns. Sometimes it really is that simple. The Lions offense has been super consistent, and Gibbs is a main cog in the machine. His price is getting expensive, but he has the ceiling to justify spending up. Good Chalk.

As with Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown just feels inevitable. His role is matchup proof, quarterback proof, and the kid is just really, really good. Even at $7900, in good matchups like this one, he’s worth it. Good Chalk.

Stacks:

Jared Goff + 1 – 2 of Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, or Jahmyr Gibbs.
There hasn’t been a hotter wide receiver to start 2025 than Amon-Ra St. Brown, who leads the league with 6 receiving touchdowns in 4 games. Jameson Williams becomes an extremely interesting option, as he actually is dominating the Lions’ air yards, but his targets just haven’t been catchable, yet. Gibbs, another receiving running back, gives an option to help differentiate the lineup in larger tournaments while also getting a piece of Chalk within your stack.

Jake Browning + 1 – 2 of Ja’Marr Chase or Tee Higgins.
The Bengals stacks are an option, but I wouldn’t go particularly overweight on them. Without Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase is just an average fantasy wide receiver, and his price just doesn’t ever reflect that given his name value. He is good enough to pop off in any given week, though, so you can’t completely fade him, but I would limit my exposure to this stack.

Leverage:

David Montgomery, RB DET, $5200:
While Jahmyr Gibbs has been the star of the Detroit backfield, Montgomery continues to get a good bit of work on the ground. With an implied team total of 29.5, it is feasible to think that Montgomery could end up with a big workload in a blowout as Detroit looks to grind down the clock. Any Montgomery touchdown is a touchdown not scored by Amon-Ra St. Brown or Jahmyr Gibbs, and could give you a nice boost in tournament fields.

Jameson Williams, WR DET, $4900:
Jameson Williams’ appeal is his big play ability. He doesn’t need a ton of targets to get a monster game, he just needs to connect on a few of his opportunities. Big plays mean less yards for the other Lions’ players, and it would especially hurt Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jahmyr Gibbs from a passing volume perspective, as the game script could end up pushing the Lions to be more run heavy after Williams does his damage.

Noah Fant, TE CIN, $3100:
Returning to the lineup this week, Noah Fant may be the forgotten piece in the Cincinnati passing game. His prospects would be much better with Burrow at the helm, but if defenses are going to focus on Chase and Higgins, the tight ends could end up with a solid stat line and get a nice boom game if the touchdowns come with it.

Commanders at Chargers (Total 47, Chargers -3); Dome
We should get Jayden Daniels back, albeit in a difficult matchup on the road without his top weapon, Terry McLaurin. However, the Chargers offense has been solid this year, and should push the Commanders to get aggressive. It may be difficult to predict which Chargers’ wide receiver is the best play, as they have all had success, but if you can nail that pick, you set yourself up well as ownership should be split amongst them.

Chalk:

Omarion Hampton has almost no competition for backfield touches. He is a capable pass catcher, and he is on a good offense. At home, in what should be a relatively high scoring affair, can you afford to pass on a stud running back for $6500? Good Chalk.

Stacks:

Jayden Daniels + 0 – 2 of Deebo Samuel, Zach Ertz.
Daniels is the rare quarterback that can be played solo, although most of his biggest games will bring along at least one pass catcher. Deebo Samuel is the safest option with Terry McLaurin out again, but Zach Ertz has always been a favorite target.

Justin Herbert + 1 – 2 of Keenan Allen Quentin Johnston, or Ladd McConkey.
Any of the three wide receivers make solid pairings with Herbert. The Chargers have been extremely pass heavy this season, and that shouldn’t change with only Omarion Hampton as a reliable running back.

Leverage:

Jacory Croskey-Merritt, RB WAS, $5100:
Not the best price for a running back splitting work with two other teammates. However, Jacory Croskey-Merritt has been the best of the bunch on the ground. If he continues to have solid outings, we might see the backfield work shift in his favor, and that would likely mean that he is breaking off long plays and forcing the Washington coaching staff to run the ball, rather than having Jayden Daniels sling it.

Oronde Gadsden II, TE LAC, $2700:
With all of the focus rightly being on the talented trio or Chargers wide receivers, Oronde Gadsden II has been earning praise from his coaches and could end up with increased looks in the near future. Gadsden is no better than the 6th-most likely touchdown scorer on the team, behind three wide receivers, a running back, and quarterback. That is what makes him interesting leverage, though – a big game from Gadsden should completely cap the upside of any other Chargers other than Herbert, who we assume would be getting passing touchdowns.