DraftKings Main Slate Shakedown: Week 4

This weekly series will bring you tips on how to attack the weekly Guaranteed Prize Pool (GPP) tournaments on DraftKings. The player pool is restricted to the Main Slate (Sunday AM/PM games). Look for analysis regarding Game Environments, Good Chalk/Bad Chalk, Stacks, and Leverage Plays.

First, a quick summary of what to consider when building a lineup. The entire goal of playing in GPP tournaments is to finish 1st. The top prize is massive compared to the small returns from barely finishing inside the prize cutoff. Beyond striving for 1st, look for a unique lineup to avoid any split winnings. Focus on the most-likely top-end outcomes and assume hunches will be correct. Pair QBs and pass catchers, so that each TD is counted twice. Identify game environments that should lead to scoring for both teams and include players on both sides.

The easiest way to narrow down what games to target is looking at betting lines for game totals (total points scored). Leverage the spread to identify the implied team totals (i.e. what would be the score if both the total and the spread are correct). Also consider the physical environment – will the game be exposed to weather, and how will that affect play? Rain generally won’t hurt fantasy output much, but wind can impact passing and kicking opportunities.

Game Environments

Commanders at Falcons (Total 43.5, Falcons -2); Dome
The Commanders will start Marcus Mariota for the 2nd week in a row. He proved that he is still a solid option in this offense, passing for over 200 yards and a touchdown while rushing for another 40 yards with a touchdown. This week he will be without top target Terry McLaurin, though. The Falcons are strong against wide receivers, so expect the Commanders to focus on their running game. Conversely, Washington has been strong against the run, but has given up points to WRs, so Michael Penix and the Falcons’ passing game could be in for a rebound after an anemic Week 3 showing.

Saints at Bills (Total 48, Bills -15); No expected weather impact
Per the odds posted in Vegas, this is the most lopsided game on the slate. The Bills should control this one, scoring early and often. Expect a lot of running from the Bills as they look to run out the clock, while the Saints will likely be playing from behind, providing extra opportunities for the passing game.

Browns at Lions (Total 44.5, Lions -10); Dome
The Browns knocked off a top NFC North foe in Week 3 and will look to add the Lions to their victims list. The Browns have been extremely stout defensively, but they’ll face a Lions offense that has shown it can still score points even after the Ben Johnson era. Expect the Lions to fare better than the Packers, as they can be lethal either on the ground or through the air as the matchups dictate.

Panthers at Patriots (Total 43, Patriots -5.5); No expected weather impact
The Patriots come in off of a disappointing loss to the Steelers, while the Panthers just drubbed the Falcons 30 to 0. So, of course, the Patriots are favored – it’s the NFL, expect the unexpected! The Patriots were able to move the ball in Week 3 but stalled in the redzone multiple times with costly turnovers. This should be an offensive game, as neither team has been able to create much pressure on the quarterback, and with time, both Bryce Young and Drake Maye should be able to put points on the board.

Chargers at Giants (Total 44, Chargers -6.5); No expected weather impact
It didn’t take long for Daboll to decide that he couldn’t keep Jaxson Dart on the bench. Dart has shown promise, but there is a big difference between preseason and regular season. The Chargers will be a stiff test for the rookie’s first start, so temper expectations, but you can expect that the Giants will find one way or another to get the ball to Malik Nabers. I’d also expect the Chargers to give extra reps to their backup RBs if they can control the game, as the look for depth behind Omarion Hampton following the season ending injury for Najee Harris.

Eagles at Buccaneers (Total 44, Eagles -3.5); Chance of rain as the game progresses
The Eagles are only 3.5-point favorites against the Buccaneers, but it seems like a good matchup for the Eagles. The Buccaneers have surrendered the 4th most rushing yards to quarterbacks (96), which means Hurts should be in for a good day. They’ve also given up the second most receiving yards to running backs, so Saquon may not get a lot done on the ground, but he should be solid in PPR formats. Tampa Bay will likely have a bit of a new look as star wide receiver Mike Evans will miss the first of a few games with a hamstring injury. This leaves Emeka Egbuka as the obvious beneficiary, but Sterling Shepard is also there and shouldn’t be forgotten about in a game in which the Buccaneers could end up trailing.

Titans at Texans (Total 39.5, Texans -7); Dome
Two teams that struggle to protect their QBs, with a low game total. This really doesn’t seem like a good setup for fantasy football, but there could be some good performances as both defenses have struggled at times. Both passing games should be ok, as wide receivers have done well against both defenses. I’d probably avoid the running games, as Pollard gets a tough Houston front, and we don’t quite know what the split will be for Houston’s running back room – Chubb hasn’t lost his job, yet, but rookie Woody Marks is making the case for more opportunities.

Colts at Rams (Total 49.5, Rams -3.5); Dome
While Jonathan Taylor stole the limelight in Week 3 with a huge performance and three touchdowns, he’ll have a hard time repeating. The Rams have been excellent against the run — having yet to allow a touchdowns on the ground to running backs. Expect most of the production to come via the air in this one. With a 49.5 Total, there should be plenty of points with several players worth targeting in DFS.

Jaguars at 49ers (Total 46.5, 49ers -3.5); 10 mph winds
I don’t know what to make of this Jaguars offense. They were supposed to get a big upgrade by bringing in Liam Coen as head coach. However, that seems to be offset by hiring Shane Waldron as Passing Game Coordinator. Brian Thomas Jr. has made a bunch of mistakes, Trevor Lawrence has had an up-and-down start to the season. Really, the only consistent bright spot has been the RB room with the resurgence of Travis Etienne and the exciting plays added by rookie Bhayshul Tuten. The 49ers will get Brock Purdy back, just in time to attack a Jaguars secondary that has given up quite a bit to opposing wide receiverss. However, seemingly the entire 49ers wide receivers room is banged up, so we might see Christian McCaffrey lead the team in targets.

Ravens at Chiefs (Total 48.5, Ravens -2.5); Chance of rain
This is an intriguing matchup against two teams that should be heavyweights by the seasons’ end. However, as of now, the teams have 2 wins… combined. This game could play out in a lot of ways, and while the teams could rely on their offenses to try to outscore each other, my hunch is that it will be a game of ball control. The Ravens have not been able to stop the run, so I could see a run-heavy gameplan employed by Kansas City, especially given that their wide receivers room has been banged up.

Bears at Raiders (Total 48, Raiders -1); Chance of rain
This matchup would get my pick for “Most likely to go over”. The Bears have been bad defensively (Week 3’s implosion by Dak Prescott aside), but the Raiders secondary has given up even more yards to opposing WRs. Expect this to be a quarterback battle with the defenses struggling to slow down each signal-caller.

Chalk

Hampton will be a popular selection, and for good reason. He has the profile we want to lean into. We haven’t really seen what his ceiling could be, but we know that he’ll get a massive workload as long as the Giants can keep the game respectable. He has been involved both on the ground and through the air, so he won’t be game script dependent, and his team has a solid implied total for the week. Good Chalk.

At $8500, McCaffrey is starting to get a bit expensive. I won’t blame anyone who feels they can’t fit CMC into their budget, but his upside remains immense. He continues to get a ton of targets while the 49ers WRs continue to miss practices and games with injury. We’re just waiting for the multi-TD game which should be coming soon… Good Chalk.

Skattebo’s situation is a bit riskier than the other chalk options. We’ve seen his offense struggle, and it will be the first start for Jaxson Dart – so we don’t fully know what to expect. However, at $5500, he should be a bellcow (only Devin Singletary should cut into his work), and he’s already proven to be reliable both in the passing game and at the goal line. His workload should be too good to pass up at this price, even in a risky situation. Good Chalk.

Jonathan Taylor is coming off a monster Week 3 (we did have him labeled as “Good Chalk” in the Week 3 Main Slate Shakedown). However, this week he plays against the Los Angeles Rams. The Rams have been stout against the run, and Taylor just doesn’t get particularly involved in the passing game. He has, to his credit, already caught 8 passes this year, but it hasn’t shown to be a big part of his game historically. There is a big risk of a ho-hum performance that may propel his team toward a win, but won’t pay off in DFS. Bad Chalk.

Meyers is averaging nearly 9 targets and catching nearly 6 passes per game. The Chicago secondary has been very thin as they deal with injuries. The Chicago offense could actually help as well, if they can continue their form from Week 3. The risk, as we saw in Week 3, is that Geno Smith is experienced enough to spread the ball to the open player. If that happens to be Tre Tucker (or Brock Bowers), Smith may not need to use Meyers, despite looking his way 26 times so far this season. Bad Chalk.

Nacua was able to get it done against the Eagles last week, posting 11 for 112; but he was kept out of the endzone. This should be an easier matchup a Colts’ secondary that has yet to match up against a WR tandem of this caliber. Nacua is one of the players who can get hot and carry a teams’ entire offense through a game. If that happens, you don’t want to miss it. Good Chalk.

The Commanders’ defense should funnel more work to the passing game, as they have been stout against the run. However, it is hard to trust the Falcons’ offense after being shut out by Carolina. Even at $5700, Drake London is too risky given the dud performances he’s put up. Bad Chalk.

Adams is the 2nd Rams’ WR that looks to be chalk in Week 4. Adams’ stats lag behind those of his teammate, Puka Nacua, but he has put up a respectable total of 13-213-2 through the first three weeks. Given his price of $6200, it only takes an 18.6-point game to get to 3x, and he’s already averaging 16.4. In a good matchup, he could go well over 18, and he should have enough volume to protect your risk. Good Chalk.

Stacks

Saints at Bills:
Spencer Rattler + 1 – 4 of Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed, Juwan Johnson, or Alvin Kamara.
The Saints are cheap enough that you can jam a bunch into your lineup. In a game that they should be playing from behind, there may be enough volume to go around. I probably wouldn’t play all 4 together, but Kamara could do some damage through the air against the Bills’. I’d likely mix a WR with one of Johnson or Kamara and otherwise go with 2 WR if it were my lineup.

Josh Allen + Keon Coleman
I don’t love Bills stacks, as I think this game could turn into a game of Madden where you turn on “chew clock” just to finish quickly. However, we’re confident that the Bills will score, and the Saints defense has typically been attacked via outside WRs.

Panthers at Patriots:
Bryce Young + 1 – 2 of Tetairoa McMillan, Hunter Renfrow, or Tommy Tremble.
If the Patriots struggle to get pressure on Young, it could end up being a big day for the passing game. Tetairoa McMillan is likely to see Christian Gonzalez (check the injury report pregame), but his volume should offset any downgrade in matchup. Tremble becomes a sleeper play, as Ja’Tavion Sanders is out with a hamstring injury, leaving the bulk of the TE snaps to Tremble.

Drake Maye + 0 – 2 of Stefon Diggs, Hunter Henry, or TreVeyon Henderson.
While I expect a lot of success on the ground for the Patriots, Maye is always a threat to score a couple rushing TDs. If you do stack, I’d prefer Henry out of the bunch, and I’ll keep recommending Henderson as his skillset lends itself to big days on limited touches. If he can turn a few screen passes into a pair of passing TDs, he’ll have a huge day and take Drake Maye with him.

Chargers at Giants:
Justin Herbert + 1 – 3 of Ladd McConkey, Keenan Allen, or Quentin Johnston.
There’s not much to be said for why we want to stack Chargers. Herbert has been great, and this has been the team with the highest PROE thus far. If we can get the passing attack concentrated, it could create an extremely efficient stacking scenario, but all three of the WRs are capable of boom games.

Jaxson Dart + Malik Nabers.
As with any other QB, it is always playable to stack Malik Nabers and whoever is throwing him the ball. The budding superstar has the ability to score in bunches, and should be looking at double digit targets, as per usual. The matchup isn’t great, but it should be a game where the Giants have to throw a lot, so perhaps Dart and Nabers can connect on several big plays.

Colts at Rams
Daniel Jones + 1 – 2 of Michael Pittman, Josh Downs, Tyler Warren, or Adonai Mitchell.
The only combination to avoid from this set would be the pair of Josh Downs and Tyler Warren. They operate in the same area in the center of the field, so it is unlikely that both can go off at the same time. Adonai Mitchell gets included this week as Alec Pierce is out. Mitchell has the skillset to make a big impact even on limited targets. He just hasn’t been consistent thus far in his young career.

Matthew Stafford + 1 – 2 of Puka Nacua or Davante Adams.
The Rams are much more straightforward. Puka is the more likely player to hit a boom game, but Adams is cheap enough to consider, and avoiding one of the WRs may actually be a good strategy as they can each be played as leverage off the other. That said, the game could have enough volume for Stafford to support both, and I wouldn’t shy away from it.

Jaguars at 49ers:
Trevor Lawrence + 1 of Brian Thomas Jr. or Brenton Strange.
This is more of a contrarian stack. The Jaguars have been disappointing, but that has depressed their pricing. BTJ could score on any given play, which means he doesn’t need to be fed all day to smash. Brenton Strange has had a solid role and actually projects out really nicely this week. These stacks also give the option of the obvious bring back with Christian McCaffrey (and probably help fit him in the budget, too).

Brock Purdy + 1 – 2 of Christian McCaffrey, Ricky Pearsall, or Demarcus Robinson.
With Purdy back, the passing game may get a boost in San Francisco. While McCaffrey and Pearsall have been doing the heavy lifting to this point, don’t forget that Demarcus Robinson is now eligible after serving his 3-game suspension.

Ravens at Chiefs:
Lamar Jackson + 0 – 2 of Zay Flowers or Mark Andrews.
No one else has really gotten the volume, but we’ve seen Zay be the centerpiece of the passing attack, and Mark Andrews broke out of his slump in a big way last week. You could always use Lamar alone and hope for rushing, but I expect this to be a game where Lamar needs his pass catchers to get it done.

Patrick Mahomes + 1 of Xavier Worthy or Tyquan Thornton.
Xavier Worthy is off the injury report after his Week 1 shoulder injury. Both players have occupied the “deep threat” role, so you don’t want to combine both, but if Mahomes has a big day, it will be because of the efficiency he has linking up with either Worthy or Thornton deep.

Bears at Raiders:
Caleb Williams + 1 – 2 of Rome Odunze, D.J. Moore, Luther Burden III or Cole Kmet.
I’d prefer the WRs, as they Raiders’ weakness is in the secondary. However, with Colston Loveland expected to miss the game, Kmet could be running more routes than expected. The other option is that Ben Johnson decides to play more “11” personnel, which may give Luther Burden III an increase in playing time. The rookie made the most of his opportunities in Week 3, and he has the talent that could make it tough to keep him off the field now that he’s flashed.

Geno Smith + 1 – 2 of Brock Bowers, Jakobi Meyers, or Tre Tucker.
Bowers should still be the alpha of this group, but we’ve seen Meyers lead the team in targets. We witnessed Tre Tucker’s ability last week, and in another good matchup, an encore is possible. I’d expect the Raiders to find a matchup or two that they want to exploit, so I don’t expect Geno to get all of them overly involved.

Leverage Plays

Demarcus Robinson, WR SF, $3500
One way to keep Christian McCaffrey from scoring? Score before you reach the endzone. Demarcus Robinson may be a low-owned alternative to CMC, in case the 49ers offense scores, but it doesn’t go through their star player.

Daniel Jones, QB IND, $5600
While the public chases the boom game from Jonathan Taylor, is it that hard to imagine that there is a repeat of Week 1? Daniel Jones vultures rushing TDs and has a reasonable game through the air? It would leave Taylor as a landmine in competitors’ rosters, and there are a few good stacking options to double up on any scores through the air.

Ashton Jeanty, RB LV, $6200
The focus will be on the Las Vegas passing game. However, we can see the talent is there for the star RB. Perhaps Vegas can move the ball through the air, but when they get near the goal line; it’s perfectly logical that they would pound in the TD with Jeanty. A multi-TD game would really siphon points away from any of the three main pass catchers for the Raiders.

Kyren Williams, RB LAR, $6300
Just like with Ashton Jeanty, Kyren could pull double duty, giving a huge game to your lineup while also capping the ceiling for both Nacua and Adams. The matchup through the air is better on paper, but Kyren looked extremely good last week.