Underdog Fantasy Sunday Top Plays 9/28

In this weekly series, the crew will break down their top plays for the day and tell you why you should target them! This Sunday, we have an interesting array of games where mostly the late games have high totals, and there’s several teams primed to put up big scores on paper. Let’s take a look at some Underdog plays to win ourselves some money.

Baker Mayfield HIGHER than 17.5 Rushing Yards

Through 3 weeks, Baker is yet to rush for less than 33 yards in a game. Even if that isn’t a sticky stat, he still only has to rush for about half that number to go higher than 17.5 rushing yards in this game. Plus, Mike Evans is out for this game, which means there will be less open receivers for Baker to target compared to what he’s used to. I think this could translate to him scrambling more than he has so far, especially in a game against the Eagles where points are a must for Tampa Bay.

Chris Olave HIGHER than 5.5 Receptions

It pains me to have to care about a New Orleans Saints game this week, but I’m going to. Chris Olave has 37 targets through three weeks and 23 receptions. Spencer Rattler is absolutely peppering this man with targets, and he probably is going to have to again against a Bills team that projects to steamroll New Orleans in this game. Olave has had more than 5.5 receptions all 3 weeks so far, and I don’t see any reason for that to change here in a game the Saints will need to pass a ton.

Christian Kirk HIGHER Than 39.5 Receiving Yards

Christian Kirk is now going to be in his second healthy week back from injury, and the Texans face a putrid Tennessee Titans defense. In his first game back, Kirk was targeted eight times by CJ Stroud, though it only resulted in three receptions for 25 yards. However, it’s clear that Stroud needs a second target besides Nico Collins, especially on the underneath stuff, and Kirk plays the perfect role to give CJ a bail-out option. I like going higher than 39.5 receiving yards here on the theory that they connect a few more times against a worse defense than last week.

Jared Goff HIGHER than 227.5 Passing Yards

The Lions are a different animal (maybe like a dragon?) at home, regardless of their opponent or how “in hand” the game is. They score points like it’s going out of style, and they don’t sit their starters if they’re up 2-3+ scores later in the game. For that reason, I like the higher on Goff’s passing yards in this game, especially if the Browns defense can actually somewhat contain Detroit. But even if they can’t, the Lions aren’t going to stop trying to score, and Jameson Williams and Amon-Ra St. Brown can take a pass 75 yards to the house on any given play.

Patrick Mahomes HIGHER than 4.5 Rush Attempts

Every time we are given this play, I take it. Every time. Regardless of how healthy his weapons are, Patrick Mahomes is good for six to seven rushes a game, plain and simple. When he is under pressure, he’s taking off and running this season, usually for pretty decent chunk plays. But attempts also include kneel downs (though unlikely in this game, but not impossible for the Chiefs), and getting that potential added on top of Mahomes usually surpassing this stat just on scrambles every week, makes it a must-play for me.

**All projections are pulled from FantasyPros Weekly Research Tools.