Find the next premier fantasy football RB before they hit the hole and take the league by storm!
Running Backs Dominate Fantasy
In my previous article, How To Whittle Down Rookie WRs, I explained why dynasty rosters are often built around Wide Receivers. So why do Running Backs matter? Seemingly every year there has been a ‘new’ strategy aimed at avoiding the overpriced RB position. I can endorse the sentiment – don’t overpay for excess risk. However, hitting on RBs, especially the top-end options is an even bigger advantage. As the league trends further and further toward the pass, there are more WRs who can consistently produce in fantasy. We are also seeing a trend toward ‘committee backfields.’ Teams split the RB workload between multiple players. This makes the few players who can command true workhorse usage even more valuable when you are trying to compete for a title.
What Are We Aiming For?
In 2024, we saw the weekly RB12 average 6.22 more fantasy points than the RB24. For WRs the difference was only 5.22. This seems close, but WR scoring levels out much more quickly than RB scoring. This means top end RBs gain an even more significant positional advantage. It is much easier to find a WR you can trust to catch a couple passes, even in dynasty with extremely thin options.
To truly set yourself apart, you want to be finding those players that average at least RB12 weekly scoring. In 2024, that worked out to be 17.77 FPPG and only 10 RBs managed 17+ FPPG. In fact, since 2015, no year produced more than 10 RBs that met this mark. When you maximize your chances of rostering these players, it turbo-charges your championship odds.
RB1 Analytic Profile
NFL teams drafted 161 RBs from 2015 through 2022. Only 18 averaged 17 FPPG within their first three years in the league. The odds are bleak – 11.18%. So how do we find these studs?
Trust the NFL. We can disagree on individual evaluations or contract decisions, but the truth is, scouts know what they are doing. NFL teams tend to draft better players earlier in the draft. Restricting the player pool to players picked in Round 1 – Round 3 limits our sample to 54. We can further restrict the list of RBs by looking only at players that declare early (3 years in college). From this population we find that 11 players met the FPPG target out of 35 total players (22.22%)
More than ever, RBs need to contribute to the passing game. Studies have shown that receptions are much more valuable for fantasy than rushes. All of the remaining 11 RBs scoring 17+ FPPG registered more than 0.9 receptions per game, 0.12 targets per route run, and 0.9 yards per route run in college. The added criteria reduced the population to only 21 RBs (52.38%).
RBs must be able to handle a good workload. If they can’t handle volume, they won’t receive enough touches to succeed in the NFL. Remove players that fail to average 13 touches per game (carries and catches) and players who don’t exceed 20 touches per game in a season. Now our RB group has only 14 players, with 10 reaching 17+ FPPG (71.42%).
The last piece of criteria to apply is Break Away Rate. How often did a RB gain 15+ yards? We can apply a minimum Break Away Rate of 6.45% and our population is looking pristine! 11 RBs qualify and 10 hit the 17 FPPG threshold. Even the one that missed (Duke Johnson) did manage 9+ FPPG in each of his first 3 years (capping out at 13.5). The hit rate is 90.91%.
The results from the last couple years is also promising. Only Bijan Robinson and De’Von Achane met all the criteria from the 2022 and 2023 NFL Drafts. Each have already surpassed 17 FPPG. Jonathan Brooks met the criteria in 2024. Injury is stalling his potential breakout, as he recovered from and reinjured his ACL in 2024. Time will tell if he can return to form to maintain this trend.
Looking ahead, 4 prospects in the 2025 draft class meet the criteria and are expected to be drafted. Pay attention to see who earns Draft Capital in Round 1 – Round 3. I am reserving judgement on the 2025 RB class until we get official Combine/Pro Day numbers and we see the Draft Results. If any meet this profile… you can be sure I’ll be targeting them in my upcoming Rookie Drafts!
