DraftKings Main Slate Shakedown: Week 3

This weekly series will bring you tips on how to attack the weekly Guaranteed Prize Pool (GPP) tournaments on DraftKings. The player pool is restricted to the Main Slate (Sunday AM/PM games). Look for analysis regarding Game Environments, Good Chalk/Bad Chalk, Stacks, and Leverage Plays.

First, a quick summary of what to consider when building a lineup. The entire goal of playing in GPP tournaments is to finish 1st. The top prize is massive compared to the small returns from barely finishing inside the prize cutoff. Beyond striving for 1st, look for a unique lineup to avoid any split winnings. Focus on the most-likely top-end outcomes and assume hunches will be correct. Pair QBs and pass catchers, so that each TD is counted twice. Identify game environments that should lead to scoring for both teams and include players on both sides.

The easiest way to narrow down what games to target is looking at betting lines for game totals (total points scored). Leverage the spread to identify the implied team totals (i.e. what would be the score if both the total and the spread are correct). Also consider the physical environment – will the game be exposed to weather, and how will that affect play? Rain generally won’t hurt fantasy output much, but wind can impact passing and kicking opportunities.

Game Environments

Packers at Browns (Total 41.5, Packers -8); Light rain likely with 10mph winds
This is one of the most lopsided games on the slate. The Packers look like a juggernaut after thrashing the Lions in Week 1 and the Commanders in Week 2. The Packers have gone under in each of the first two games this year, so the only way this stays close is if Cleveland’s defense shows up at its best. More likely the Packers frolic through this one and don’t have to rely on anyone to put up big numbers to do so. The Browns will need to do their damage with their short-area targets, as we’ve seen teams unable to give their QB time to throw downfield against this Packers’ pash rush.

Colts at Titans (Total 43.5, Colts -4); Chance of rain with 10mph winds
Jonathan Taylor and the Colts will look to move to 3-0, likely on the back (or legs) of Jonathan Taylor. Tennessee has given up the 4th most rushing yards in the NFL (and are only 7 away from 2nd most). With the Colts expected to control this one, Taylor should have plenty of opportunities, and he’s already started hot this season. The Colts’ secondary has been stingy, so Cam Ward may have trouble coming back if the Titans fall behind.

Bengals at Vikings (Total 42.5, Vikings -3); Dome
Week 3 brings us a matchup between two of the best WRs in the NFL. Unfortunately, both teams will be starting backup QBs, which may limit the passing games. Perhaps the backups are still good enough to punish any defensive mistakes, but there a lot of ways this game could play out given all of the unknowns. With a total of 42.5, there should be higher scoring games on the slate.

Steelers at Patriots (Total 44.5, Steelers -1.5); No expected weather impact
This is an underrated matchup, as the expectation of an elite Steelers’ defense has not been met thus far in 2025. The Patriots defense is extremely weak against the pass (although relatively strong against the run), and the Steelers haven’t been much better. This could easily turn into a shootout.

Rams at Eagles (Total 44.5, Eagles -3.5); No expected weather impact
The Eagles seem content to continue to do what they do. After posting a ridiculously low pass rate over expectation (-6.1%) in 2024, they have just continued to dominate teams on the ground. That hasn’t resulted in huge offensive outputs, though – as Saquon Barkley has only had a single explosive rush in 2025. No, instead, the Eagles have just been methodically moving the ball down the field, frequently getting into 3rd- or 4th-and-short situations that lend themselves to the ‘Tush Push’.

Jets at Buccaneers (Total 43.5, Buccaneers -6.5/-7); Chance of rain with some mild wind
As is the theme of the week, this is another game where injuries will play a major role. The Jets will be without starting QB Justin Fields who is dealing with a concussion. For Tampa Bay, they placed two starting OL on IR since their Week 2 game against Atlanta. With a makeshift offensive line – we’ll see whether Baker Mayfield can continue to move the ball or whether the Buccaneers will need to rethink their game plans moving forward.

Raiders at Commanders (Total 44/44.5, Commanders -3.5); No expected weather impact
The Commanders are another team that will be down several key players for Week 3. Austin Ekeler tore his Achilles tendon towards the end of their Week 2 game, and Jayden Daniels is nursing a knee strain that may sideline him for this contest. Marcus Mariota has been around for a while, so he should be able to keep the Commanders’ offense on track, and we’ll get to see how Jacory Croskey-Merritt handles being the lead back rather than as a change of pace to Ekeler. The Raiders continue to search for answers, as their running game hasn’t been able to get going. That is unlikely to turn around against the Commanders, though, as they’ve been quite stout against the run. Instead, look for the Raiders’ TEs to do serious damage over the middle.

Falcons at Panthers (Total 43.5/44, Falcons -5/-5.5); No expected weather impact
You can’t ask for a better matchup for some of the Falcons. The Panthers have been falling behind early, lending themselves vulnerable to RBs. Not the best recipe with Bijan Robinson coming to town. I wouldn’t look for Penix and his WRs to do that much, though – as the secondary has been strong against WRs, but they have given up the most receiving yards to TEs (Paging Kyle Pitts).

Texans at Jaguars (Total 44, Jaguars -1.5); Moderate wind with potential for gusts of 20mph
Both the Texans and Jaguars have had their stars start slow. The Texans’ Nico Collins did find the endzone in Week 2, but the OL has not given Stroud enough time to consistently look downfield for Collins. The Jaguars’ Brian Thomas Jr. hasn’t been able to catch much of anything. Either Trevor Lawrence is missing him, or when the ball is accurate, he may be impacted by a wrist injury. Not a lot to love for two teams that have struggled thus far.

Broncos at Chargers (Total 46, Chargers -2.5/-3); Dome
We get a classic strength on strength matchup in Los Angeles as Justin Herbert looks to stay hot against the Broncos who have given up the 4th fewest fantasy points to QBs. I think Herbert can get it done, as Patrick Surtain can only cover one receiver per play. Keenan Allen, Quentin Johnston, and Ladd McConkey have all played well the first few weeks, and any of them should be able to make plays for Herbert.

Saints at Seahawks (Total 41.5, Seahawks -7.5); Chance of rain
What was going to be an ugly situation appears to have turned into one of the chalkiest on the slate. Zach Charbonnet is doubtful for the game, leaving Kenneth Walker III to dominate the backfield against a Saints’ defense surrendering the 6th most points to opposing RBs. The Saints have been good against WRs, but Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s usage has been unreal through two weeks. To counter, the Saints will look to use Alvin Kamara to exploit a Seahawks defense giving up the 3rd most points to opposing RBs. They also happen to be giving up the most points to TEs, and the Saints have one of the clearest TE rooms with Juwan Johnson dominating usage.

Cowboys at Bears (Total 50.5, Cowboys -1); Chance of rain
This game is anticipated to be the shootout of the week. The Bears have given up huge performances to opposing QBs (especially on the ground), and Dak Prescott has the best receiving corps he has had in years. The Cowboys’ defense isn’t going to do much to help, though – as they gave up 37 points to the Giants in Week 2 (after they scored 6 in Week 1). The Cowboys have been especially susceptible to rushing QBs, and Caleb Williams has flashed that ability frequently this year.

Cardinals at 49ers (Total 45, 49ers -2.5/-3); No expected weather impact
Mac Jones is slated to make his 2nd start in lieu of injured QB Brock Purdy. The 49ers are seemingly held together by a piece of chewing gum, but they still have Christian McCaffrey and Ricky Pearsall available to help Jones. The Cardinals have been extremely pass-heavy, but the 49ers have been quite good against QBs.

Chalk

Jordan Mason should be chalk in Week 3 after Aaron Jones was placed on IR. Mason will become the unquestioned lead back (at least for Week 3) for a team that will be starting a backup QB (Carson Wentz). Expect the Vikings to ask Mason to shoulder a significant load this week, and with not much proven depth behind him (Zavier Scott and Free Agent acquisition Cam Akers) he should continue to get at least some of the receiving work from the backfield. Good Chalk.

Christian McCaffrey is finally rising in price, as he is now the most expensive player on the slate ($8200). He still projects to be one of the best values and always carries slate breaking upside. In weeks where San Francisco is missing playmakers, he’ll get as much work as he can handle – we just haven’t seen things break the right way for him in game, yet. Good Chalk.

Walker is another late add to the chalk list. Zach Charbonnet is listed as doubtful with a foot injury. We’ve been monitoring this backfield split through the first two weeks, but now we don’t have to worry about that. In games that Walker receives more than 10 carries, which has happened in over 65% of his games, he averages 17.90 points. He has hit 30 points in 15% of those games. Good Chalk.

Another high-end option at RB is Bijan Robinson. Currently #2 in the NFL in scrimmage yards per game (146), Robinson gets a good matchup against a struggling Panthers’ defense. The Panthers have had two very different games against RBs. In Week 1, they gave up the most yards to the position; but in Week 2, they ranked 8th against the run, holding the Cardinals to 48 yards rushing. Given that they finished as the best matchup against RBs in 2024, I’m inclined to believe the result of Week 1, which makes this a tasty matchup for Robinson. The only concern is if Bijan gets extra rest in a non-competitive game while the Falcons use Tyler Allgeier to salt away the game. Good Chalk.

Bucky Irving has produced well so far. He’s more involved than he was in the back half of 2024, and he’s been relatively efficient with his touches. However, the situation isn’t great – the Buccaneers just lost 2 OL heading into Week 3, and I don’t know that the Jets will be able to keep up with the Buccaneers with Tyrod Taylor under center. While usually that would be good for the running game, I could see the Buccaneers looking to split the workload between their three RBs to ensure they stay healthy for more competitive games. Given the multitude of other good options, this isn’t a great spot for Bucky. Bad Chalk.

Taylor has started hot in 2025 as a key cog in the Colts’ surprisingly potent offense. Look for that trend to continue against a Titans’ defense that has been shaky against the run. With the volume he is getting and the efficiency he has logged, he is a safe option in a game the Colts should control. Good Chalk.

This will be a rare case for Puka, as he is one of the best WRs in the league and has the full trust of a solid QB in Matthew Stafford. However, this week, the Rams play the Eagles who have given up the 8th fewest points to WRs in 2025. I’m not saying Puka can’t get it done, but I’d rather spend my budget elsewhere in easier matchups. Bad Chalk.

The Saints are actually not a great matchup for Jaxon Smith-Njigba, as they rank in the top 10 against WRs thus far in 2025. However, Smith-Njigba’s price hasn’t caught up to his role, yet. $6500 for someone who is averaging double digit targets and over 100 receiving yards per game? Sign me up. Good Chalk.

Jakobi Meyers leads the Raiders in targets, receptions and receiving yards. However, they draw a matchup with the Commanders who have allowed the 6th fewest yards and 5th fewest receptions to WRs in 2025. His price is palatable at $5600, but there are better options to find a ceiling outcome. Bad Chalk.

If there was an option better than “Good Chalk” Rome Odunze would get it. He is in the game with the highest total on the week, he is leading the Bears in targets (despite an aDOT of 13.7). He is locked in as Caleb Williams’ top target, and this is a game where they’ll have to score a lot of points. Expect double digit targets, which Odunze can turn into a boom game priced at only $5300. Good Chalk.

CeeDee Lamb is in an awesome spot this week. The Bears’ defense is running out of CBs after placing Jaylon Johnson on IR. The game should be an up and down affair and Lamb will be the focal point of the Dallas offense. The price is a bit high at $8000, but that’s the only drawback for Lamb this week.

Keenan Allen has been on fire to start 2025. He is leading the team in targets and receptions and looking good doing it. There is only one problem: Patrick Surtain. Opponents top X WR has put up the following stat lines… Week 1: 8 targets, 4 catches, 27 yards, 0 touchdowns; Week 2: 5 targets, 4 catches, 40 yards, 0 touchdowns. If you’re good with 6-8 points out of Allen, so be it, but I’d recommend looking elsewhere (as should Justin Herbert). Bad Chalk.

Evans draws a tough matchup in Week 3 against Sauce Gardner and the Jets. While not as dominant as Patrick Surtain has been, Gardner has helped hold the opposition’s top outside WRs to fantasy totals of 12.3 and 5.6 PPR points. Evans’ role does lead to boom games when he and Mayfield can connect on his downfield opportunities (13.7 aDOT so far in 2025), but it feels less likely than normal for this matchup. Bad Chalk.

Most of the attention at TE will be drawn toward the top of the pricing. McBride at $5700 will be selected in many lineups as people don’t necessarily have many other options they can trust. However, the 49ers have actually been pretty good against TEs thus far, and McBride still seems to be allergic to the endzone. In a better matchup, McBride can put up boom games even without TDs due to his volume. However, this isn’t one of those matchups. Bad Chalk.

I just mentioned how McBride can provide boom games due to volume. Well, Juwan Johnson has more targets and receptions than McBride. His usage has been awesome and DFS players may not have caught up, yet (his price certainly hasn’t). Seattle has been giving up the most points per game to opposing TEs, so the matchup and game script (Seattle is favored by 7 points) just boost this play. Good Chalk.

Stacks

Bengals at Vikings:
Jake Browning + 1-2 of Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins.
The gameplan won’t change for the Bengals, as their entire team is built to score points and hope their defense can do enough to contain the opponent. With Burrow out, Browning should have no problem running the offense, and he’ll be able to focus in on the best WR tandem in the league. I prefer single stacks here, as I don’t think the game is as high scoring as the total would indicate, but either WR have the ability to go for 150 yards and 2 TDs against a weak Vikings’ secondary.

Carson Wentz + Justin Jefferson.
The Vikings are also turning to their backup, but we know Kevin O’Connell likes to make sure he gets his playmakers involved. Jefferson is the best option they’ll have, and O’Connell should scheme up plenty of touches for Jefferson, who is a threat to catch anything thrown his way against any coverage.

Steelers at Patriots:
Aaron Rodgers + 2 of DK Metcalf, Calvin Austin III, Jaylen Warren.
This could end up being the highest scoring game on the slate. The Patriots have ruled out Christian Gonzalez, leaving them shorthanded again and hoping that they don’t get torched for a 3rd game. Enter: Aaron Rogers. After posting 4 TDs in his season opener, he was quiet in Week 2. However, he is likely to exploit any mismatches he has with his primary WRs. Warren is the sneaky stack option, as the Steelers have mentioned the need to get him more passes. The Patriots seem to get hurt more with pass-catching RBs, and Warren has proven explosive on those plays.

Drake Maye + 0 – 2 of Stefon Diggs, Kayshon Boutte, or TreVeyon Henderson.
Maye is a QB that you can play naked, given his ability to run in the redzone. If you’re truly chasing ceiling, though – you’ll want to bring along a WR and hope for some double-counted TDs. Boutte has been hot, but Diggs has been ramping up. NOT FOR THOSE THAT ARE FAINT OF HEART: you could include Henderson in a stack looking for the game where he pops off. We’ve seen his ability throughout training camp and the preseason, so it is only a matter of time before he hits a blow-up game.

Jets at Buccaneers:
Baker Mayfield + Emeka Egbuka.
It may seem odd to leave off Mike Evans, but this is a matchup where Evans will occupy Sauce Gardner and Egbuka should go back to work. The Jets have been middle-of-the-pack against WRs, but Sauce has been fantastic, meaning the secondary WRs have been able to produce.

Raiders at Commanders
Marcus Mariota + 1 – 2 of Terry McLaurin and Deebo Samuel.
Let’s be honest, if Jayden Daniels was healthy, you’d be looking at this stack. Well, Mariota is a capable backup QB and is priced at only $4000. The matchup is still juicy against a terrible Raiders’ pass defense and he has solid weapons around him. Not to mention that with Ekeler out of the season, it is likely that some targets will shift to the WRs and TEs as they figure out how to fill that void over the next few weeks.

Saints at Seahawks:
Spencer Rattler + 1 – 2 of Alvin Kamara and Juwan Johnson.
The Seahawks defense has been pretty good, but I fully expect the Saints to score some points, whether that is keeping the game close or scoring in garbage time. Seattle has been especially sound against WRs, so I’d avoid Chris Olave and Rasheed Shaheed which would be the normal stacking pair. Instead, look to Alvin Kamara as the Seahawks have given up the most receiving yards to RBs (211 vs TB at #2 with 166). The Seahawks are also the worst defense against TE so far this year and Juwan Johnson has been getting FLAWLESS usage.

Sam Darnold + 1 – 2 of Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Ken Walker III.
Monitor pregame reports, as Jaxon Smith-Njigba has been downgraded to questionable with an illness. However, if he plays, he has been the dominant WR in this offense. When passing becomes this centralized, the QB/WR pair become playable looking for a big combination game. You can also include Ken Walker III, as he should have the backfield to himself and it should be a positive game script in addition to the passing-down work he already has.

Cowboys at Bears:
Any combination of: Caleb Williams + De’Andre Swift, Rome Odunze, D.J. Moore, Olamide Zaccheaus
This is just a matchup of two teams that should be able to score against bad defenses. If this game goes NUCLEAR I could see any/all of the pieces popping off.

Any combination of Dak Prescott + Javonte Williams, CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens, Jake Ferguson
See above.

Cardinals at 49ers:
Mac Jones + 1 – 2 of Christian McCaffrey and Ricky Pearsall.
We saw that Mac Jones can have games worth playing when his price is low. $5000 still qualifies in a home game with Kyle Shanahan calling the plays. The hope is that McCaffrey catches his TD(s), and Pearsall continues to be the stalwart in the 49ers WR corps as everyone else seems to be taking turns being injured.

Leverage Plays

Tyler Allgeier, RB ATL, $4700
If the obvious play is Bijan Robinson then getting exposure to Allgeier could put some of your entries in a very strong spot. If the game script goes as expected, why couldn’t Allgeier get 12-15 carries salting away the clock. And what happens if he adds the rushing TDs instead of Bijan. Your opponents are now out the $7900 they spent and you just got a cheap boom week from one of your RBs.

Kyle Pitts, TE ATL, $3900
Another play that leverages against Bijan would be Kyle Pitts. Carolina has given up the 2nd most receiving yards to TEs in the first two weeks, and if Pitts breaks off a long TD or two it would really stifle the opportunities for Bijan.

Michael Mayer, TE LV, $3000
We heard all offseason that the Raiders want to get Mayer more involved. On most other teams he would be the starting TE. There will be a game this year where he catches multiple TDs, and at $3000 with a good matchup against the Commanders, I’ll give it a chance in a few spots.

Daniel Jones, QB IND, $5400
We have already seen Daniel Jones post weeks of 29.48 and 25.84 fantasy points. There is the chance that he could either A) vulture the rushing TDs with QB sneaks or B) connect with his pass catchers rather than setting up Jonathan Taylor to score on the ground.