Welcome, ladies and gentlemen, to the first FRIDAY NIGHT Underdog Fantasy Top Plays article. The crew will break down their top plays from the action and tell you why you should target them, also! Let’s waste no time and dive into the only game on the slate: Kansas City Chiefs vs Los Angeles Chargers in São Paulo, Brazil.
Xavier Worthy HIGHER Than 0.5 Rush + Rec TDs
Xavier Worthy
Kansas City Chiefs • WR • #1
Xavier Worthy HIGHER than 0.5 Rush + Rec TDs is my top play of the evening. In his rookie year, Worthy scored 9 TDs over 16 games (6 receiving, 3 rushing). While that looks pretty close to a 50/50 proposition, as the Higher/Lower option suggests, there are a couple of trends to keep in mind. #1) Worthy scored twice in his debut last year. #2) The Chargers gave up a league-leading 12 TD passes on throws 20+ yards downfield.
Worthy is likely to be Andy Reid’s early-season chess piece, as the team starts the season with Rashee Rice suspended for the first six games. Expect the Chiefs to take multiple deep shots to Worthy with his 4.21 speed. In 2024, four of Worthy’s six receiving TDs came on targets 20+ yards downfield. The HIGHER side of this pick is a perfect match for player trait and team tendencies.
Patrick Mahomes HIGHER Than 3.5 Rush Attempts
Patrick Mahomes
Kansas City Chiefs • QB • #15
Digging a bit deeper into the pick options, I like Patrick Mahomes HIGHER than 3.5 rush attempts. Mahomes will be without his top WR, Rashee Rice, which will limit the options in the quick passing game. To compensate, expect more play-action than usual from the Chiefs, looking to force the Chargers to hesitate defensively.
In 12 career games against the Chargers, Mahomes averages 4.3 attempts, including at least four attempts in each of the last four meetings. Expect Mahomes to extend plays once again and use his athleticism to keep drives alive.
Omarion Hampton LOWER Than 14.5 Longest Rush
Omarion Hampton
Los Angeles Chargers • RB • #8
Hampton was a productive runner at the collegiate level. He rushed for 1,660 yards (5.9 YPA) and posted an 8.7% Breakaway Run Rate (15+ yards). However, Week 1 is not likely to see much of that explosiveness. In 2024, Hampton averaged 23.4 carries per game, which would average out to 2 explosive rushes per game. He now faces better competition at the NFL level and has a role where he shares the backfield with Najee Harris. Projected for only 14.1 carries suggests he would be in line for one explosive rush on average, but that is using his collegiate breakaway rate.
Now consider that his Week 1 matchup is against the Kansas City Chiefs, who gave up explosive runs on only 2.9% of attempts in 2024. This is a game where opportunities will likely be limited for Hampton, as his team is expected to trail the Chiefs, and the explosive plays will be hard to come by, as the Chiefs tend to force teams to beat them with consistency.
**All projections are pulled from FantasyPros Weekly Research Tools.
